If He Survives, He Wins.

[Corlyss_D]

Has he got away with it?
Apr 4th 2007 | DAMASCUS
From The Economist print edition

President Bashar Assad seems to have won a new lease on political life

FOR a country painted by many as an international pariah, Syria is looking remarkably spruce. New cars jam the streets of its ancient capital, Damascus, whose once-dowdy shop windows now bulge with fancy goods, and where the price of prime property has doubled in the past two years. The economy, which grew lamely at less than 2% a year from 1999-2004, last year swelled by 5%. Energy consumption, a clearer indicator of economic activity, surged by 16 %, says a minister.

Something to smirk about

Syria's leaders, long shunned by fellow Arabs as well as Westerners, seem suddenly back in fashion, too. President Bashar Assad's relations with the governments of neighbouring Turkey and Iraq have warmed. He has strengthened Syria's long-standing alliance with Iran, yet seems also to have reconciled with the region's rival heavyweight, Saudi Arabia. King Abdullah greeted him in person last week at the airport of Riyadh, the Saudi capital, on his arrival for an Arab summit whose next venue is to be Syria. Javier Solana, the European Union's foreign-affairs head, had soothing words for Mr Assad on a recent visit. This week, defying President Bush's ban on high-level contacts, two American congressional delegations, one led by Nancy Pelosi, the top-ranking Democrat, took the road to Damascus.

Mr Assad may even get back into the swim of Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy, from which he has been largely excluded, thanks in part to his backing of Hamas's exiled leader, Khaled Meshal, whose haven is Damascus. The resuscitated Arab League peace plan of 2002 includes a demand that Syria be given back the Golan Heights in return for peace with Israel. And there is talk within the newly-formed Arab Quartet of moderate states (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) that Syria should be included, partly to detach it from its ally, Iran.

Not so long ago, things looked very different. America's invasion of Iraq in 2003 added, alongside Israel's, another big, unfriendly army next door. Citing Syrian meddling in Iraq and Lebanon and accusing it of sponsoring terrorism here and there, the Americans imposed sanctions, withdrew their ambassador, threatened “hot pursuit” of alleged terrorists who sought sanctuary on Syrian soil, and began funding Syria's exiled opposition. The EU declined to ratify a free-trade agreement reached in 2004, leaving Syria the only Mediterranean state without privileged access to European markets.

Lebanon, long a reliable fief, erupted in a popular anti-Syrian revolt after the killing of its five-times prime minister, Rafik Hariri, in February 2005, forcing Syrian troops into a humiliating retreat. Worse yet, Lebanon's newly elected government lobbied the UN to investigate and try Mr Hariri's murderers; accumulating evidence pointed to Syrian complicity.

Things were not much better at home. Shrinking oil reserves, said experts, would drain Syria's main source of revenue. The loss of Iraq as a lucrative trade partner, and of relatively rich Lebanon as a sponge for Syrian unemployment, would speed a slide into bankruptcy. Mr Assad, a political novice who succeeded his feared but respected father on his death in 2000, looked ever weaker, as promised reforms failed to materialise, defectors deserted the ruling Baath party and a rising opposition chorus spoke of its impending overthrow.

The turnaround is not quite complete. Unemployment, corruption and poverty still hamper the economy. Mr Assad is still mistrusted by many of his neighbours, loathed by many politically-conscious Syrians and still risks being fingered for Mr Hariri's murder. But on a range of issues, his patience, stubbornness and absolute intolerance of dissent may be paying off.

He owes his new lease on political life to the incompetence or fatigue of his enemies, to clever diplomatic footwork and to lucky circumstances. Last year's war in Lebanon, for instance, looked as if it would seal the doom of Mr Assad's main ally there, Hizbullah. Instead, the Shia militia emerged battered but politically strengthened. Mr Assad gained from popular Arab perceptions that he had justly backed the right horse, while his Lebanese allies were emboldened to try to corner the pro-Western government in Beirut into dropping its demand for an international tribunal to bring Mr Hariri's killers to book.

Opposition to the American-led invasion of Iraq has brought dividends too. Partly due to Syria's encouragement of the Sunni insurgency at the outset (since tempered by controls on the passage of jihadists), America has burned its fingers badly and lost its enthusiasm to foment regime change elsewhere. Though Iraq's sectarian turmoil could spill over into multi-sectarian Syria, it also carries opportunities for Mr Assad.

Appalled by the mess next door, few Syrians now doubt that their own secular dictatorship is preferable to the anarchy of supposedly democratic Iraq. Yet Syria's belated recognition of Iraq's government, skilfully portrayed as a graceful bow to American pressure, has brought big rewards. Syria is fast regaining its traditional role as the gateway to rich Mesopotamia. Iraq bought some 400,000 tonnes of Syrian farm produce last year. Near Qamishli, in the north-east, a queue of Syrian lorries heading for Iraq stretches 30km (19 miles). Even the influx of 1m Iraqi refugees brings some benefits: a boom in Syrian property, plus a surge in consumer demand.

The potential gains from Iraq are even greater. Large natural-gas fields lie just across the border in Iraq: the easiest export route for Iraqi oil is through Syrian ports. Iraqi officials already speak of enlarging existing pipelines, while Syria is expanding its refining capacity in anticipation. Meanwhile, even as high world prices have maintained Syria's income despite shrinking energy exports, new discoveries of gas and oil—most recently, by British-based Gulfsands Petroleum—look set to slow the predicted decline in reserves.

But perhaps the greatest satisfaction for Mr Assad is the likelihood of his outlasting his enemies. France's President Jacques Chirac, whose pursuit of justice over the killing of Hariri, his close friend, took on the tone of a personal vendetta, will soon be gone. So too will Tony Blair. And Mr Assad could well be in power after George Bush has bowed out too.
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This calls to mind Margaret Thatcher's chilling appraisal some years after Gulf 1 on the topic of who won the Gulf war. To underscore her concern that Saddam had won after all, she said she was out of office and Bush was out of office and who was left? Saddam. No wonder the tyrants of the world laugh at us and make sport of us. They can do as they please, confident that we who are their moral betters are completely ineffectual in delivering the justice they so richly deserve.

[Werner]

And by now Saddam is gone, too, Corlyss. History keeps moving. Bush will be gone, (none too soon), Asasad will have his turn.

[SaulChanukah]

Assad is a dirtball of the worst kind.

[RebLem]

Assad is a dirtball of the worst kind.

Up to now, we were aware of only two categories of folk you don't like: apes, and lower than apes. Now we have a dirtball. Is that higher than an ape, between and ape and lower than an ape, or lower than lower than an ape?

Also, you said Assad is a dirtball of the worst kind. Could you give us some examples of dirtballs of the best kind, and dirtballs of the fair to middlin' kind so we can get an idea of the difference?

Just trying to get these rankings straight.

[pizza]

Assad is a dirtball of the worst kind.

Up to now, we were aware of only two categories of folk you don't like: apes, and lower than apes. Now we have a dirtball. Is that higher than an ape, between and ape and lower than an ape, or lower than lower than an ape?

Also, you said Assad is a dirtball of the worst kind. Could you give us some examples of dirtballs of the best kind, and dirtballs of the fair to middlin' kind so we can get an idea of the difference?

Just trying to get these rankings straight.

It falls somewhere between a stalker and a baiter.