WSJ on the how the dems support among independents has completely collapsed in the last three elections. Obama ran as a centrist and he's governed as a lunatic.
Independent Voters Abandon Democrats
To Win Back Vital Bloc, Party Plans to Retool Midterm-Election Message to Focus on Economy and Play Down Health Care
By PETER WALLSTEN
Democrats' loss in Tuesday's race for a Massachusetts Senate seat is a stark illustration of their collapsing support from independent voters, a phenomenon that's prompting party leaders to revamp their playbook for this year's midterm elections.
Independent voters—typically centrist, white and working-class—backed President Barack Obama and the Democrats in 2008. But Massachusetts is now the third Obama-won state in the past three months where independents have swung decisively Republican.
Polls in the days leading up to the vote suggested the lead for Republican Scott Brown came about largely because of his advantage among independents over Democrat Martha Coakley.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that Mr. Obama's job-approval rating among independents nationwide is 41%. That's a 12-point drop from his performance on Election Day in 2008, when he won 52% of independents, and a near-20-point decline among that group from the heights of his popularity soon after taking office.
"The independents are the fulcrum of the American electorate," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the Journal survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "Simply put, for the Democrats and Barack Obama, the arrows have been pointing down."
In Virginia and New Jersey, Republicans won governorships in November by winning independents by two-to-one margins. In all three states, polls showed that independents were anxious about the economy and the rising jobless rate, with health-care a less important issue.
Democratic strategists worry the numbers paint a gloomy picture for the party in states with competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races this year where independent voters will hold sway, including Colorado, Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio. Those states carry added weight for the White House because they will be battlegrounds for Mr. Obama's re-election.
Massachusetts could be problematic again in November when Gov. Deval Patrick is up for re-election amid dropping approval ratings. If the tide is not stemmed, unexpected blue-state contests could erupt for Sen. Barbara Boxer (D., Calif.) and Gov. Martin O'Malley of Maryland.
"This is a strong wake-up call for Democrats across the country," said Andrew Whalen, executive director of the North Carolina Democratic Party.
Polls show independent voters aren't enamored of the GOP either, and could be lured back to the Democrats again if the economy improves. Only about one-fourth of independents feel positively toward either party, according to the survey.
Democratic campaigns across the country began rethinking their 2010 playbooks as Ms. Coakley slid in the polls. Strategists say they plan to play down health care as an election-year topic and shift to a populist message taking Wall Street to task for causing the country's economic woes. Democrats also hope to blame Republicans for the economy, and align GOP candidates with their unpopular national leadership.
"The message needs to be on jobs, fiscal responsibility, and reminding people that if you turn back the clock, you're going to get the same policies that got us into this mess in the first place," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D., Md.), chairman of the Democrats' House campaign committee. "You can talk about health care in that context, but clearly not leading with health care."
Celinda Lake, Ms. Coakley's pollster, said angry voters want someone to blame for lousy economic conditions and political infighting in Washington. "Unless we ascribe blame to someone, they're going to blame us."
In the Massachusetts race, Ms. Coakley sought to close the gap with Mr. Brown by seizing on his opposition to the administration's new bank tax to paint him as a party-line Republican. The effectiveness of such an approach is unclear.
"The voters don't want a boogeyman, they want less spending," said Nick Ayers, director of the Republican Governors Association.
Ms. Coakley's supporters in Massachusetts said the bad economy made the landscape treacherous for Democrats. They credited Mr. Brown with successfully tapping into anxiety over employment and government spending.
"There are a lot of people who've lost their jobs, even some laid-off Teamsters and they're frustrated," said Steve Sullivan, government-affairs liaison for Teamsters Local 25 in Boston.
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