A wake up call to everyone...

Discuss whatever you want here ... movies, books, recipes, politics, beer, wine, TV ... everything except classical music.

Moderators: Lance, Corlyss_D

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Wed Jul 07, 2010 11:57 pm

Lately I've seen a combination of things that are quite disturbing (to say the least). I've been thinking about this now for quite some time, but have yet to really write about it in any detail. I've never been that good at organizing my thoughts but here goes:

Most people are familiar with the famous quote by Edmond Burke: "Those who don't know history are destined to repeat it." Well, I believe history is in the process of repeating itself, and in a really negative way. I also sense that far too many people are asleep or in la la land and/or are just not seeing the signs.

This climate change/global warming thing is essentially a new religion, and it's being used by the "elite power seeking class" as a device to solidify their power base around - much like the Christian church (as well as other religions) were used throughout history as a means of controlling the masses and centering a power base around. Now I know most here haven't really researched the issue very much, but the fundamental stuff coming out of the IPCC that's being used to justify the alarm is nothing short of 100% brazen fraud (more on all this later). The IPCC is the holy writ (of course, as with most religions few actually understand and have read the holy books).There are high priests like Al Gore. The persecution of the scientists who debunk it repeats that of the Copernicians by the Church in the 1500s. The Copenhagen climate conference is the modern day equivalent of the Council of Nicaea (more on the details of this later). It's the same exact element of human nature and the human mind - the same kind of people behind it as it was in the past. This time, however, it is on a global scale (actually, in the form of a global government - more on that later also). If that's not bad enough, the policies to be put into place in the name of the religion are going to quite literally spread poverty all over the world. As just one example, food prices will skyrocket causing many in poorer countries, who can barely afford to buy enough food the survive, to literally starve to death.

This leads me back to the Burke quote - the reason for it is very simple: Human nature remains the same, which means humans will do what they are innately programmed to do over and over again. I truly believe that those involved in this are totally unaware they are repeating history - they are simply doing what comes natural to them. Exactly what those in the past did, and those before them and so on. Hence, why history has a tendency to repeat itself and why Burke was so right. It's funny because I can recall learning this in grade school history class and thinking yeah whatever...humanity knows better...this won't happen again, etc., but now I can see it so vividly.

The part of human nature at work here is the desire to take over and control people. It's been part of the human mind throughout all of history, and in some sense that's all history at its core has been. My theory (and it's just a theory) is that this is a left over remnant of evolution that provided some kind of survival benefit when people primarily used to live in small groups. Kind of like the dominant dog that leads the pack - someone would take over and be the leader or dictator of the small group making sure things were spread out evenly and fairly so the group would get along and be able to survive as a whole (or something like that). It is also inevitable that this part of human nature would manifest itself into a desire to control the world. Well, these take over and control types have amassed themselves at the UN in combination with the European Union along with our current President - their goal is to form a global government and ration wealth and resources around the world. If you don't believe me, get a copy of the Copenhagen treaty and read it - there is wording in it that specifically establishes a global government and gives it the power to take wealth from US in the form of "climate debt" and give it to other countries. Mind you there is nothing in there about elections - this is global government run by elites - basically unaccountable to the population.

I want to elaborate on this a little more. I truly believe the people behind all this think they are doing good. That's the they way it always is. They are following their innate drive to try and make everything fair - they think the world is all screwed up and chaotic because they can't control everything. No doubt many of them believe in AGW/climate change - just like many of the same ilk in the past believed in the gospels of the church, but I think it was far more belief out of convenience rather than belief born out of a search for truth or evidence. AGW is useful tool to them, so it's convenient to just go along with it and believe it. Simple as that. Also, fundamentally I think they hate the United States system because it was designed primarily to empower the people and limit them. They also think the US is the world's bully and we've largely prospered by screwing the rest of the world. It's a strange mentality but it is important to understand what the motivations are behind all this. As I've stated before, there is a way to take the power away from the people and shift it toward them - that is to entrap as many people as they can in as many entitlements as possible. Without entitlements, they have little power over the people. This is what's going on with healthcare and immigration. They are trying to import voters for themselves at the expense of the citizenry to get them on the entitlement dole. In effect, they are trying to outnumber all the productive, self sufficient people and create as many dependent people as possible while they ascend and we all go down the tubes. Once we're outnumbered or do not have enough votes to win elections anymore, it's game over - they can completely collapse the system financially and economically. With the necessary votes, they can pass climate change legislation that further cripples the economy and accelerates financial crisis/collapse. The human mind will do this - we've seen it throughout history over and over again. The Founders of this country were vividly aware of this and tried to create a system designed specifically to stop these kind of people from taking over. It worked for quite well for a while, but it is starting to fail at an alarming rate. For example, something like 70+% of the public is against immigration/amnesty for illegals, yet they are still pushing for it. Something like 60%+ of the public is against national healthcare. When the system is no longer serving the will of the people, the system is broken; the republic is in trouble. I'm kind of rambling now but hopefully I've gotten the point across.

There is also another element in play here and it's perhaps equally disturbing. Many here are probably familiar with the famous novel "1984" written by George Orwell. Here's the parallel I'm seeing. In his book, Orwell describes that many of policies of the states as being determined by "a scientific elite" heavily funded by the government. Well, 80 billion dollars of the slush fund (aka the 2009 stimulus bill) are going to so-called "climate change research." 80 BILLION when it's already been debunked and many top scientists have testified before congress saying so (more on that later).

In short, what I'm seeing here is a kind of cross between some form of religiously anchored statism or authoritarianism along with some of the more modern Orwellian things in "1984". Basically all of the kinds of things that are the antithesis of the thinking that came out of the age of enlightenment - the kind of thinking that was the foundation of the United States.

I believe we are living the beginning stages of all of this, and I fear that a lot of people aren't recognizing these things for what I believe they are. It's not likely going to happen overnight but in a series of stages - possibly over many years or decades. I cannot emphasize enough that I am NOT a conspiracy theorist. I don't believe in wacky irrational things. The evidence is there for all of this - it just takes a good amount of work to find all the pieces and fit it together. The stuff coming out of the IPCC is fraudulent - I'm not exaggerating. It is something out of the twilight zone. I've never encountered anything like it. It's absolutely the scariest thing I've ever seen in my entire life. By all means do not take my word for any of this...you really have to delve into the science and own the knowledge for yourself. All the pieces are there - there are no logical or evidential gaps. It is complicated, but essentially what happened was a few scientists in order to get or continue to get large amounts of grant money falsified or manipulated their research to produce catastrophic claims about CO2 and the climate - the kind of claims those providing the research funding were looking for. In any field there are always dishonest people - people willing to cheat or sell out their integrity to advance themselves or to just make a buck. That's basically how this happened. Those pushing this wanted it to be true and they found the scientists who would produce the research supporting it for them. I can't overemphasize that you have to own the scientific knowledge for yourself to really "see it" and understand how outright fraudulent and pseudo-scientific it is. You don't have to be a physicist to see the fraud - it is often that brazen.

The brings me to one other historical element. Really bad but preventable things that have transpired throughout history have tended to follow a pattern or period of denial or a refusal to accept what is really happening because it's just too uncomfortable to think about and deal with. I fear that we are in the denial stage now...people don't want to think this could really be happening because the consequences are so disturbing, so they'll just hope that it isn't true or just shut it out of their mind. Well, I believe it's happening; their doing it, and they are going to succeed if they are not stopped.

This is the end of my rant (please forgive the pompousness). I hope at the very least this will awaken some serious thought about these things. Above all, don't take my or anyone else's word for any of this - do your own research.
Last edited by rwetmore on Sat Oct 30, 2010 12:04 am, edited 3 times in total.
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

Mark Harwood
Posts: 810
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2008 3:24 am
Location: Isle of Arran, Scotland.

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by Mark Harwood » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:03 am

Agreed.
Whatever the merits of the case for Man-made climate change, the bodies that argue for it do seem to take on some characteristics of a priesthood.
I noticed this first in the matter of the Big Bang. Adopting a minority view, I was disturbed to see how dissenters within the scientific establishment were treated. It ain't pretty.
Science is mostly done by normal, fallible people with personal and social objectives. Sometimes it's: defer to the priests or find another job.
Both of these fields have taken on the trappings of religion. Ironic, or what?
"I did it for the music."
Ken Colyer

jbuck919
Military Band Specialist
Posts: 26867
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2004 10:15 pm
Location: Stony Creek, New York

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by jbuck919 » Thu Jul 08, 2010 5:56 am

Not getting enough attention up on the dedicated thread, eh Randall?

There's nothing remarkable about it. All one has to do is hit the right keys at the right time and the instrument plays itself.
-- Johann Sebastian Bach

piston
Posts: 10767
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:50 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by piston » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:39 am

There is nothing wrong with keeping an eye on the planet. What is wrong is the utter lack of social grace among people who cannot tolerate even that.

For instance, the extent of Arctic ice growth has been well below average this year meaning that, in June and as I write, Arctic ice melt (or loss) has reached the thicker, older ice.

That is a fact and I just leave it at that. Others, such as as in a corresponding BBC article this week, take that fact and extrapolate that some scientists are predicting a complete loss of summer ice in the Arctic Ocean in fifty years. The climate change skeptics certainly have the right to challenge such a long term forecast but where they go overboard is when they rudely attack the simple expression of the original, basic fact: this year's Arctic ice loss.

It's that simple, really: the loss of older layers of Arctic ice, which began last month, indicates that ice is receding again this year as it has done for several years in the first decade of this millenium. Period.
In the eyes of those lovers of perfection, a work is never finished—a word that for them has no sense—but abandoned....(Paul Valéry)

piston
Posts: 10767
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:50 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by piston » Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:01 am

And that is why I have been paying attention to "ice-out" records for Maine lakes -- it's the same natural phenomenon on a smaller scale than in the Arctic. To state, as I did on CMG, that ice-out records for the 2000-2009 decade are the earliest on file, with some lake data going back to the 1860s and 1880s, is to present an undeniable fact. Somehow, though, this earlier post proved unacceptable to several skeptics here. It was trivial. It didn't prove anything. It was provocative. :roll: One has to wonder who exactly is practicing a new religion......
In the eyes of those lovers of perfection, a work is never finished—a word that for them has no sense—but abandoned....(Paul Valéry)

jbuck919
Military Band Specialist
Posts: 26867
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2004 10:15 pm
Location: Stony Creek, New York

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by jbuck919 » Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:12 am

piston wrote:And that is why I have been paying attention to "ice-out" records for Maine lakes -- it's the same natural phenomenon on a smaller scale than in the Arctic. To state, as I did on CMG, that ice-out records for the 2000-2009 decade are the earliest on file, with some lake data going back to the 1860s and 1880s, is to present an undeniable fact. Somehow, though, this earlier post proved unacceptable to several skeptics here. It was trivial. It didn't prove anything. It was provocative. :roll: One has to wonder who exactly is practicing a new religion......
I think I posted on this at the time, but lake ice data is also considered an important, reliable, and un-finicky indicator of climate change in the Adirondacks, and I assume in other areas as well. The problem is that the first or last appearance of ice on such-and-such a lake is not a very exciting statistic. The ho-humness and not the scientific value is what keeps lay people from paying it serious attention. Even the supportive press scarcely mentions it (they happened to one day in the local paper, which is how I found out about it myself).

There's nothing remarkable about it. All one has to do is hit the right keys at the right time and the instrument plays itself.
-- Johann Sebastian Bach

piston
Posts: 10767
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:50 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by piston » Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:21 am

True and that's the case with much info about the planet, such as wild bush fires where they do not involve a whole lot of human settlement. Incidentally, NASA's Modis web is now documenting these fires with a precision unknown to human kind before, all the way up northern Canada, Alaska, Siberia, etc. For some information such as that there won't be any reliable point of reference from the past. Nevertheless, we now have the technological means to monitor the geographical locations and seasonal occurrence of bush fires.
In the eyes of those lovers of perfection, a work is never finished—a word that for them has no sense—but abandoned....(Paul Valéry)

THEHORN
Posts: 2635
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2008 8:57 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by THEHORN » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:19 am

I'm not certain about the whole global warming issue, but whether it is true or not, we must not get complacent about the environment.
But unfortunately,many conservatives who sneer at global warming ARE becoming complacent and have been lulled into a false sense of security.
The fact remains that there are very serious environmental problems which face the world, and there is a definite possibility of catastrophic events in the future if the wolrd is not careful.
Pollution is a very serious problem, and could very possibly have an adverse effect on the climate and other facets of the environment.
For example, are you aware that there is a giant mass of plastic and other refuse floating in the middle of the Pacific ocean? It's the size of Texas !
And those who say that overpopulation is not a problem fail to realize that the world does not have an unlimited supply of food,water, energy and fuels, and that there is only a limited amount of inhabitable space on earth.
Vast parts of it are either totally uninhabitable or would never be able to support more than a very small population.
Do you really think that Greenland will ever be able to support a population of 300 million people?
While we should not submit to hysterical reports of doom, we must always be vigilant about the environment and clomate.

piston
Posts: 10767
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:50 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by piston » Thu Jul 08, 2010 11:14 am

Concerning pollution, a different topic: I know of some individuals, including one member of my extended family, who are expert fishermen and who could feed their family plenty of excellent fish such as salmon if it were not for what has been done to a rivers and lake. Here's an instance where no one can argue about the human source of such an ecological change. But even though this is poor rural Maine, here is what any consumer of Maine fish needs to read:
Warning: Mercury in Maine freshwater fish may harm the babies of pregnant and nursing mothers, and young children.

SAFE EATING GUIDELINES
Pregnant and nursing women, women who may get pregnant, and children under age 8 SHOULD NOT EAT any freshwater fish from Maine's inland waters. Except, for brook trout and landlocked salmon, 1 meal per month is safe.

All other adults and children older than 8 CAN EAT 2 freshwater fish meals per month. For brook trout and landlocked salmon, the limit is 1 meal per week.

It's hard to believe that fish that looks, smells, and tastes fine may not be safe to eat. But the truth is that fish in Maine lakes, ponds, and rivers have mercury in them. Other states have this problem too. Mercury in the air settles into the waters. It then builds up in fish. For this reason, older fish have higher levels of mercury than younger fish. Fish (like pickerel and bass) that eat other fish have the highest mercury levels.

Small amounts of mercury can harm a brain starting to form or grow. That is why unborn and nursing babies, and young children are most at risk. Too much mercury can affect behavior and learning. Mercury can harm older children and adults, but it takes larger amounts. It may cause numbness in hands and feet or changes in vision. The Safe Eating Guidelines identify limits to protect everyone.

Warning: Some Maine waters are polluted, requiring additional limits to eating fish.

Fish caught in some Maine waters have high levels of PCBs, Dioxins or DDT in them. These chemicals can cause cancer and other health effects. The Bureau of Health recommends additional fish consumption limits on the waters listed below. Remember to check the mercury guidelines. If the water you are fishing is listed below, check the mercury guideline above and follow the most limiting guidelines.



SAFE EATING GUIDELINES

Androscoggin River Gilead to Merrymeeting Bay: 6-12 fish meals a year.
Dennys River Meddybemps Lake to Dead Stream: 1-2 fish meals a month.
Green Pond, Chapman Pit, & Greenlaw Brook(Limestone): Do not eat any fish from these waters.
Little Madawaska River & tributaries(Madwaska Dam to Grimes Mill Road): Do not eat any fish from these waters.
Kennebec River Augusta to the Chops: Do not eat any fish from these waters.
Shawmut Dam in Fairfield to Augusta: 5 trout meals a year, 1-2 bass meals a month.
Madison to Fairfield: 1-2 fish meals a month.
Meduxnekeag River: 2 fish meals a month.
North Branch Presque Isle River 2 fish meals a month.
Penobscot River below Lincoln: 1-2 fish meals a month
Prestile Stream: 1 fish meal a month.
Red Brook in Scarborough: 6 fish meals a year.
Salmon Falls River below Berwick: 6-12 fish meals a year.
Sebasticook River (East Branch, West Branch & Main Stem)(Corinna/Hartland to Winslow): 2 fish meals a month.


In the eyes of those lovers of perfection, a work is never finished—a word that for them has no sense—but abandoned....(Paul Valéry)

karlhenning
Composer-in-Residence
Posts: 9816
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 11:12 am
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by karlhenning » Thu Jul 08, 2010 11:17 am

How do we know that isn't just natural variations in the mercury levels, Jacques? [ the anti-smiley ]
Karl Henning, PhD
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston, Massachusetts
http://members.tripod.com/~Karl_P_Henning/
http://henningmusick.blogspot.com/
Published by Lux Nova Press
http://www.luxnova.com/

piston
Posts: 10767
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:50 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by piston » Thu Jul 08, 2010 11:40 am

karlhenning wrote:How do we know that isn't just natural variations in the mercury levels, Jacques? [ the anti-smiley ]
Oh, yes, I forgot, the earth changes all on its own... :mrgreen:
I'm just relieved that loons and diving ducks don't have a mouth the size of a pelican's, 'cause they're not following these consumption guidelines, and neither are otters. But one has to wonder, in this economic environment and with such a high rate of unemployment in the grand lakes area of northern Penobscot and Washington counties, if parents and pregnant mothers follow them. What will it be, a fourth day of Kraft dinner or the big, fresh fish your father caught today?
In the eyes of those lovers of perfection, a work is never finished—a word that for them has no sense—but abandoned....(Paul Valéry)

Cyril Ignatius
Posts: 1035
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:14 pm
Location: Pennsylvania

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by Cyril Ignatius » Thu Jul 08, 2010 1:13 pm

jbuck919 wrote:Not getting enough attention up on the dedicated thread, eh Randall?
Could it be that rwetmore really hit the nail on the head and is forcing you to look into the mirror Jbuck????
Cyril Ignatius

living_stradivarius
Posts: 6724
Joined: Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:41 pm
Location: Minnesnowta
Contact:

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by living_stradivarius » Thu Jul 08, 2010 1:22 pm

Cyril Ignatius wrote:
jbuck919 wrote:Not getting enough attention up on the dedicated thread, eh Randall?
Could it be that rwetmore really hit the nail on the head and is forcing you to look into the mirror Jbuck????
I'm sure we all can appreciate Randall's analogy of AGW with Christianity :mrgreen:
Image

HoustonDavid
Posts: 1222
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:20 am
Location: Houston, Texas, USA

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by HoustonDavid » Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:36 pm

A large prop of the conspiracy theory for misleading the public about climate change was
pulled out from under Wednesday by the British panel charged to investigate the scientists
accused of "manipulating" data. Read on:

British Panel Clears Scientists

from The New York Times
By JUSTIN GILLIS
Published: July 7, 2010

A British panel on Wednesday exonerated the scientists caught up in the controversy known as Climategate of charges that they had manipulated their research to support preconceived ideas about global warming.

Muir Russell, second from left, with the review panel that he led that looked into allegations that scientists at a climate research unit had manipulated or withheld climate change data. They were cleared of the charges, but rebuked for some behavior.
Related

But the panel also rebuked the scientists for several aspects of their behavior, especially their reluctance to release computer files supporting their scientific work. And it declared that a chart they produced in 1999 about past climate was “misleading.”

The new report is the last in a series of investigations of leading British and American climate researchers, prompted by the release of a cache of e-mail messages that cast doubt on their conduct and raised fresh public controversy over the science of global warming.

All five investigations have come down largely on the side of the climate researchers, rejecting a number of criticisms raised by global-warming skeptics. Still, mainstream climate science has not emerged from the turmoil unscathed.

Some polls suggest that the recent controversy has eroded public support for action on climate change, complicating the politics of that issue in Washington and other world capitals. And leading climate researchers have come in for criticism of their deportment, of their episodic reluctance to share data with climate skeptics, and for not always responding well to critical analysis of their work.

“The e-mails don’t at all change the fundamental tenets of the science,” said Roger Pielke Jr., a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado. “But they changed the notion that people could blindly trust one authoritative group, when it turns out they’re just like everybody else.”

The researcher at the center of the controversy was Phil Jones, a leading climatologist who had headed the Climatic Research Unit of a British university, the University of East Anglia. He had stepped down temporarily pending results of the inquiry, but was reinstated on Wednesday to a job resembling his old one.

The university solicited and paid for the new report, which climate skeptics assailed. “This is another example of the establishment circling the wagons and defending their position,” said Myron Ebell, director of energy and climate change policy at the Competitive Enterprise Institute in Washington.

The Climatic Research Unit, often referred to as C.R.U., has played a leading role in efforts to understand the earth’s past climate. Embarrassing e-mail messages sent by Dr. Jones and other scientists were purloined from a computer at the university in November and posted to the Internet, prompting a round of accusations.

Some of the scientists were forced to admit to poor behavior, such as chortling about the death of one climate skeptic. But were the researchers guilty of any scientific misconduct?

“On the specific allegations made against the behavior of C.R.U. scientists, we find that their rigor and honesty as scientists are not in doubt,” said the new report, led by Muir Russell, a retired British civil servant and educator.

The University of East Anglia welcomed the findings on Wednesday, declaring that an unjust attack on its scientists had been found spurious. Dr. Jones — who had said he considered suicide after the e-mail messages emerged — issued a more muted statement, saying he needed time to reflect. “We have maintained all along that our science is honest and sound, and this has been vindicated now by three different independent external bodies,” Dr. Jones said.

Last week, the second of two reviews at Pennsylvania State University exonerated Michael Mann, a scientist there who was also a focus of the controversy.

The latest report was by no means a complete vindication. Echoing the findings of an earlier report by a parliamentary committee in London, the reviewers criticized the scientists at the Climatic Research Unit for consistently “failing to display the proper degree of openness” in responding to demands for backup data and other information under Britain’s public-record laws.

On one of the most serious issues raised by the e-mail messages, the Russell panel did find some cause for complaint, but it did not issue the robust condemnation sought by climate skeptics.

The issue involved a graphic for a 1999 United Nations report, comparing recent temperatures with those of the past. Dr. Jones wrote an e-mail message saying he had used a “trick” to “hide” a problem in the data. After the e-mail messages came out, Dr. Jones said he had meant “trick” only in the sense of a clever maneuver.

The Russell panel concluded that the data procedure he used was acceptable in principle, but should have been described more fully, and his failure to do so had produced a “misleading” graphic.

The issue involved an effort to reconstruct the climate history of the past several thousand years using indirect indicators like the size of tree rings and the growth rate of corals. The C.R.U. researchers, leaders in that type of work, were trying in 1999 to produce a long-term temperature chart that could be used in a United Nations publication.

But they were dogged by a problem: Since around 1960, for mysterious reasons, trees have stopped responding to temperature increases in the same way they apparently did in previous centuries. If plotted on a chart, tree rings from 1960 forward appear to show declining temperatures, something that scientists know from thermometer readings is not accurate.

Most scientific papers have dealt with this problem by ending their charts in 1960 or by grafting modern thermometer measurements onto the historical reconstructions.

In the 1999 chart, the C.R.U. researchers chose the latter course for one especially significant line on their graph. This technique was what Dr. Jones characterized as a “trick.”

The recent season of controversy included close scrutiny of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations body that produces a major review of climate science every few years.

The Russell panel found little reason to question the advice that the British scientists had given to the climate panel, or the conclusions of that body. The panel declared in 2007 that the earth was warming and that human activity was the major reason.

However, small errors in the 2007 report keep coming to light. A review issued earlier this week by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency found several, including a case in which the panel overstated the potential impact of global warming on fish catches.

The Netherlands agency also found that the climate change panel had tended to emphasize the negative effects of global warming while playing down positive ones, like greater tree growth in northern climates. It recommended better balance and a greater emphasis on fact-checking.

“The idea that these things could be perfect is a fallacy,” said Gavin Schmidt, a climate researcher at Columbia University. Christopher B. Field, an ecologist at the Carnegie Institution for Science and a leader in the United Nations climate body, said he foresaw an opportunity “to really do a better job in characterizing what we know and what we don’t know” in the group’s next report, due in 2014.

Yet another evaluation of the panel’s work is under way, with results due in August.

Dr. Pielke, who is largely persuaded by the mainstream consensus on climate change, has criticized both climate skeptics and the scientific community for the tone of their debate.

“It has been dominated for a number of years by people at the poles — the most activist scientists emphasizing alarm, versus the most ardent skeptics saying we don’t have to do anything,” Dr. Pielke said. “This recent controversy has opened the eyes of a lot of people to a much richer tapestry of views on climate policy that are out there, which I think is a good thing.”

I must admit up front that I will always be skeptical of "conspiracy theories" because so few
of them turn out to have substance when investigated thoroughly, and history rarely substantiates
them. It remains true that the great majority of scientists and climate experts agree that climate
change is a reality and is probably caused or made worse by green house gasses released by human
technology for the better part of two or three centuries. In my opinion, it is real and will continue
until be develop the technology to wean ourselves from oil and coal and organic fuels. But then
again, just because you're paranoid doesn't mean nobody's out to get 'ya.... :roll:
"May You be born in interesting (maybe confusing?) times" - Chinese Proverb (or Curse)

karlhenning
Composer-in-Residence
Posts: 9816
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 11:12 am
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by karlhenning » Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:52 pm

Talk about a fact which will so mean nothing to certain minds which are already made up ; )

Cheers,
~Karl
Karl Henning, PhD
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston, Massachusetts
http://members.tripod.com/~Karl_P_Henning/
http://henningmusick.blogspot.com/
Published by Lux Nova Press
http://www.luxnova.com/

Chosen Barley
Posts: 639
Joined: Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:42 am
Location: Canada

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by Chosen Barley » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:05 pm

I don't know much about the two opposing viewpoints on global warming, but, boy, I know that the BP Oil Spill is the biggie. This will have repercussions further away than "just" the Gulf. For one example, certain birds migrate to that area from the colder areas of this continent. Who knows how they will react when they see the oil? Can they adjust, and decide to go elsewhere, or is it so embedded in their genes to stay in that area? Further, they are dependent on invertebrates for their food while living there. The invertebrates can ingest a certain amount of this poison without actually dying, so I think we can count on the disappearance of some varieties of birds down the line.

And yet I don't see too many governments halting new drilling for oil.

Personally, I think it's virtually impossible to absolutely prove that humans are causing this global warming, or "climate change" in any case. I did not say humans were not responsible, only that it is really hard to prove. It does seem to be virtually impossible to stop it, tho, without much human misery.
STRESSED? Spell it backwards for the cure.

piston
Posts: 10767
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:50 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by piston » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:06 pm

karlhenning wrote:Talk about a fact which will so mean nothing to certain minds which are already made up ; )

Cheers,
~Karl
This report may even have prompted this new thread :idea:
In the eyes of those lovers of perfection, a work is never finished—a word that for them has no sense—but abandoned....(Paul Valéry)

HoustonDavid
Posts: 1222
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:20 am
Location: Houston, Texas, USA

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by HoustonDavid » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:18 pm

You wouldn't happen to be talking about some people on this Forum would you Karl? :wink:
"May You be born in interesting (maybe confusing?) times" - Chinese Proverb (or Curse)

karlhenning
Composer-in-Residence
Posts: 9816
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 11:12 am
Location: Boston, MA
Contact:

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by karlhenning » Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:24 pm

HoustonDavid wrote:You wouldn't happen to be talking about some people on this Forum would you Karl? :wink:
Oh, gosh! Hadn't occurred to me.

Cheers,
~Karl
Karl Henning, PhD
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston, Massachusetts
http://members.tripod.com/~Karl_P_Henning/
http://henningmusick.blogspot.com/
Published by Lux Nova Press
http://www.luxnova.com/

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Thu Jul 08, 2010 4:40 pm

jbuck919 wrote:Not getting enough attention up on the dedicated thread, eh Randall?
No. :wink:
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Thu Jul 08, 2010 4:45 pm

piston wrote:There is nothing wrong with keeping an eye on the planet. What is wrong is the utter lack of social grace among people who cannot tolerate even that.[/quote}

Who is arguing against this?
piston wrote:For instance, the extent of Arctic ice growth has been well below average this year meaning that, in June and as I write, Arctic ice melt (or loss) has reached the thicker, older ice.

That is a fact and I just leave it at that. Others, such as as in a corresponding BBC article this week, take that fact and extrapolate that some scientists are predicting a complete loss of summer ice in the Arctic Ocean in fifty years. The climate change skeptics certainly have the right to challenge such a long term forecast but where they go overboard is when they rudely attack the simple expression of the original, basic fact: this year's Arctic ice loss.
Assuming this "fact" is true, how is it relevant to the issue here? This is what I don't understand. Evidence of change to the climate is not any evidence of anthropogenic causation. The climate doesn't do anything but change.
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

piston
Posts: 10767
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:50 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by piston » Thu Jul 08, 2010 4:52 pm

And this is what the skeptics so often have done here. If there's evidence, retreat to the notion that it does not prove it's human made and thus suggest that the presentation of the evidence is irrelevant. Otherwise, keep offering various analyses that the climate is not changing, that it is even colder, that the polar ice is not receding, it's expanding, that all those who offer evidence of any warming trend are liars, etc., etc., etc..

Two issues, then:
1. the climate is warming -- yes or no?
2. this recent trend is generated by human activity -- yes or no?

I know that you will answer "no" to number 2 but can you just come out and also answer "no" to number 1 so that we don't need to play this game anymore?
In the eyes of those lovers of perfection, a work is never finished—a word that for them has no sense—but abandoned....(Paul Valéry)

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Thu Jul 08, 2010 5:07 pm

HoustonDavid wrote:I must admit up front that I will always be skeptical of "conspiracy theories" because so few of them turn out to have substance when investigated thoroughly, and history rarely substantiates them.
Agreed. I'm the same way.
HoustonDavid wrote:It remains true that the great majority of scientists and climate experts agree that climate change is a reality and is probably caused or made worse by green house gasses released by human
technology for the better part of two or three centuries.
OK, who constitutes this "great majority" of scientists and "climate experts"? Why is their science "correct" and the skeptics science "wrong"?
HoustonDavid wrote:In my opinion, it is real and will continue
until be develop the technology to wean ourselves from oil and coal and organic fuels.
And it's an opinion based on absolutely no knowledge or critical examination of the subject whatsoever - a universal trait of all believers.
Last edited by rwetmore on Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

piston
Posts: 10767
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:50 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by piston » Thu Jul 08, 2010 5:24 pm

Careful, David, not to become a new religious fanatic! Last time I checked, the only scientists who do have any expertise in climate change matters opposed to climate warming models are essentially geologists who adopt a very long term perspective. The problem with their methodology, over several millenia, is that this climate warming trend is very short term by comparison and it is inextricably linked to a recent increase in consumption of fossil fuels, along with deforestation and other human-made changes.

In any case, these skeptical geologists, often connected with the petroleum-product industry, are indeed a small minority. But it's easy to lose sight of how small a minority they are because of all the pseudo scientific editorials authored by individuals who have absolutely no credentials on this topic.
In the eyes of those lovers of perfection, a work is never finished—a word that for them has no sense—but abandoned....(Paul Valéry)

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Thu Jul 08, 2010 5:25 pm

piston wrote:And this is what the skeptics so often have done here. If there's evidence, retreat to the notion that it does not prove it's human made and thus suggest that the presentation of the evidence is irrelevant. Otherwise, keep offering various analyses that the climate is not changing, that it is even colder, that the polar ice is not receding, it's expanding, that all those who offer evidence of any warming trend are liars, etc., etc., etc..
I don't recall anyone doing these things. Certainly not myself.

And the polar ice cap is famous for fluctuating back and forth (retreating then growing back and vice versa) over short periods of time.

I don't understand what you are implying.
piston wrote:Two issues, then:
1. the climate is warming -- yes or no?
Unknown. Trends are only known when you look back. We have seen a general warming trend over the past century of about 0.6 degrees C. Is that what you mean? Within the last century there have also been cooling trends, but within the whole century the trend is warming.
piston wrote:2. this recent trend is generated by human activity -- yes or no?

I know that you will answer "no" to number 2 but can you just come out and also answer "no" to number 1 so that we don't need to play this game anymore?
The answer to number 2 is there is no real evidence supporting it was generated by human activity.
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Thu Jul 08, 2010 5:37 pm

piston wrote:And that is why I have been paying attention to "ice-out" records for Maine lakes -- it's the same natural phenomenon on a smaller scale than in the Arctic. To state, as I did on CMG, that ice-out records for the 2000-2009 decade are the earliest on file, with some lake data going back to the 1860s and 1880s, is to present an undeniable fact. Somehow, though, this earlier post proved unacceptable to several skeptics here. It was trivial. It didn't prove anything. It was provocative. :roll: One has to wonder who exactly is practicing a new religion......
Again, what does this tell you in regards to the fundamental question here? Nothing. If I recall correctly, I suggested sometime back that you start by asking yourself a simple question: "What evidence would be required to prove AGW?"
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Thu Jul 08, 2010 5:45 pm

Chosen Barley wrote:Personally, I think it's virtually impossible to absolutely prove that humans are causing this global warming, or "climate change" in any case.
Correct. Absolute proof is not possible with something like this.
Chosen Barley wrote:I did not say humans were not responsible, only that it is really hard to prove.
I know.
Chosen Barley wrote:It does seem to be virtually impossible to stop it, tho, without much human misery.
Ah yes, it's probably impossible to stop regardless of whether misery is spread or not. I prefer to take the inevitable in not spread misery for nothing.
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

piston
Posts: 10767
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:50 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by piston » Thu Jul 08, 2010 5:51 pm

If you will recall, the ice out thread was generated in reaction to one of those phony theories that ice was expanding in Antarctica. We operate here in an action-reaction mode, not in a vacuum, and that, in itself, undermines the professional detachment required to observe objectively what is going on. The fact that you answered "I don't know" to the question about climate warming and yet keep objecting to evidence that it is -- evidence such as lake ice-out dates-- illustrates this inability to achieve professional detachment. If you "don't know" then why do you object to such evidence? Should not an objective mind weigh all the evidence of warming against what evidence there is of cooling before objecting like that? Conclusion: I do not believe you when you state that you don't know, otherwise you would not object this way.
In the eyes of those lovers of perfection, a work is never finished—a word that for them has no sense—but abandoned....(Paul Valéry)

piston
Posts: 10767
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:50 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by piston » Thu Jul 08, 2010 5:53 pm

By the way, what is your comment about the panel's report on climategate? After all, you blackened the reputation of these scientists very badly. Shouldn't you retract from your original attacks, and change the title of your generic thread? I never contributed to that thread because the title immediately conveyed a biased intention.
In the eyes of those lovers of perfection, a work is never finished—a word that for them has no sense—but abandoned....(Paul Valéry)

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:06 pm

THEHORN wrote:I'm not certain about the whole global warming issue, but whether it is true or not, we must not get complacent about the environment.
Agreed.
THEHORN wrote:But unfortunately,many conservatives who sneer at global warming ARE becoming complacent and have been lulled into a false sense of security.
The fact remains that there are very serious environmental problems which face the world, and there is a definite possibility of catastrophic events in the future if the wolrd is not careful.
What kind of catastrophic events? What and how specifically?
THEHORN wrote:Pollution is a very serious problem, and could very possibly have an adverse effect on the climate and other facets of the environment.
Again how? CO2 is a colorless and odorless gas. It's plant food. Once you've gotten the byproduct of burning down to CO2 that is as clean as you possibly get it. If you are for tighten up clean burning standards, OK that makes sense.

Real pollution is or can be a serious problem. The irony is trying to limit CO2 emissions is going to drive energy costs up, which will only make it more costly to get rid of real pollution. CO2 is as clean as it gets....limiting it only makes it harder to keep the environment clean.
THEHORN wrote:For example, are you aware that there is a giant mass of plastic and other refuse floating in the middle of the Pacific ocean? It's the size of Texas!
No. What is your source for this? How is it related to CO2 and AGW?
THEHORN wrote:And those who say that overpopulation is not a problem fail to realize that the world does not have an unlimited supply of food,water, energy and fuels, and that there is only a limited amount of inhabitable space on earth.
Of course over population is an inevitable problem. Interestingly it seems to be a much bigger problem in poorer countries. Limiting carbon emission is going to make virtually everyone on the planet poorer.
THEHORN wrote:Vast parts of it are either totally uninhabitable or would never be able to support more than a very small population.Do you really think that Greenland will ever be able to support a population of 300 million people?
It probably could have during the Medieval warm period. It was about 5 degrees warmer up there during that time. It's probably too cold now - you're right.
THEHORN wrote:While we should not submit to hysterical reports of doom, we must always be vigilant about the environment and clomate.
Yes, except a warmer climate is associated with stabler, less erratic weather than a colder climate - not the other way around. A warmer climate would also make more of the Earth inhabitable to help with over population. It's too bad CO2 doesn't have enough of a heat forcing effect to do any of this for us - warming could solve a lot of problems it sounds like. :wink:
Last edited by rwetmore on Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:13 pm

piston wrote:If you will recall, the ice out thread was generated in reaction to one of those phony theories that ice was expanding in Antarctica. We operate here in an action-reaction mode, not in a vacuum, and that, in itself, undermines the professional detachment required to observe objectively what is going on. The fact that you answered "I don't know" to the question about climate warming and yet keep objecting to evidence that it is -- evidence such as lake ice-out dates-- illustrates this inability to achieve professional detachment. If you "don't know" then why do you object to such evidence?
In what way have I "objected" to evidence that the climate is warming (or has warmed)?
piston wrote:Should not an objective mind weigh all the evidence of warming against what evidence there is of cooling before objecting like that?
Of course.
piston wrote:Conclusion: I do not believe you when you state that you don't know, otherwise you would not object this way.
Don't know what?
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

JackC
Posts: 2987
Joined: Tue May 20, 2003 10:57 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by JackC » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:19 pm

piston wrote:By the way, what is your comment about the panel's report on climategate? After all, you blackened the reputation of these scientists very badly. Shouldn't you retract from your original attacks, and change the title of your generic thread? I never contributed to that thread because the title immediately conveyed a biased intention.
I have been involved in several research misconduct investigations and litigation. I can assure you that you can can find a panel that will conclude almost anything you want it to. In order for this finding of to have any real credibility/interest on the underlying scientific question, it would have to be made by groups that at least included some sceptics of AGW. Did it????

Besides, this finding only purports to "exonerate" them from the most egregious forms of scientific misconduct - intentional fraudulent misconduct that relatively few people suspected them of. Also the latest panel did criticize their "lack of openness" and said "some of their data was misleading."

http://green.yahoo.com/news/nm/20100707 ... mails.html

Man made global warming is a multi-billion dollar industry to which many scientists and politicians have long ago staked their reputations and careers. The primary thesis will not be permitted to be destroyed by the careless actions and exaggerations of a few scientists.


Penn State conducted its own investigation into the conduct of Professor Mann, who was involved in this. Is it any surprise that the University would exonerate one of its own - expecially given the legal liability of the University if there had been another finding?

If the scientist was against AGW, and the claim was that HIS research was flawed, I can assure you that the government would not accept the findings of the scientist's own university as showing anything at all. If you have ever seen Congressman Dingell's committee destroy a renowned scientist, you would know this is all politics at this point.

piston
Posts: 10767
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:50 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by piston » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:25 pm

So, you do believe in a scientific conspiracy. Mmmm.
In the eyes of those lovers of perfection, a work is never finished—a word that for them has no sense—but abandoned....(Paul Valéry)

JackC
Posts: 2987
Joined: Tue May 20, 2003 10:57 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by JackC » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:27 pm

piston wrote:So, you do believe in a scientific conspiracy. Mmmm.
No I don't believe that, and didn't say that either.


One thing that everyone does agree on is that the climate is always changing. The degree to which the climate is changing in any unprecedented manner is an enormously difficult question to answer, since direct temperature measurements are relatively new and the data regarding climate in the past is indirect and is only inferred based on extrapolations of various theories. So just answering the question of whether we are in an unprecedented period of signficant warming is difficult enough.

Now- throw on top of that the question of the degree to which human activity is influencing the climate and the issues become infinitely more complex - as our understanding of the climate is rudimentary at best. Don't forget that just a short time ago - in the late 60s - the accepted scientific view was that we were headed to a new ice age. Why weren't all those brilliant scientists now assuring us of AGW considering the warming effects of CO2 at that time????

Now we have entered the political realm in which Al Gore is the AGW Messiah. Enormous amounts of funding are available to those prepared to conduct research that might support the AGW. But it is unlikely that you will get any funding for a project intended develop data that might undermine the AGW theory. Tenure is a reward for being part of the AGW crowd, and likely denied if you aren't. Governments are talking about transferring trillions to others even though they have no clear idea what the real effects of AGW will be - even if it is true.

And in all of this, we have a fact, acknowledged by the principal proponents of AGW in the "hacked emails", that there has been no warming in 10 years and that NONE of the models of the AGW crowed can explain why this is the case.

In this context a bit of modesty/scepticism seems to me to be warranted. That is not, however, what is happening. To the contrary, Al Gore and others in the the AGW crowd assure us that those who do not accept the faith are the same as "Holocaust deniers".

In this highly politicized environment, there are many ways in which scientific research may unintentionally be driven to the desired conclusions. Moreover, the abuse of those who - in good faith - suggest that the issue is not settled is as intense as it is unscientific and wrong.

While I don't dispute that AGW MIGHT be true, I am not prepared to say it is "settled". Moreover, even if human activity is effecting the climate to some degree, there are still incredibly difficult/complex questions remaining as to HOW MUCH of a contribution there is and whether anything can be done to SIGNIFICANTLY effect what is going on with the climate. All still seem to me to be open questions, even if I accept that some AGW is in fact occuring.
Last edited by JackC on Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:34 pm

piston wrote:By the way, what is your comment about the panel's report on climategate?
It's typical spoon feeding to the "know-nothings". Just more propaganda. As usual, it doesn't go into any specifics, it's heavily cherry picked, and is utterly useless, scientifically.
piston wrote:After all, you blackened the reputation of these scientists very badly. Shouldn't you retract from your original attacks, and change the title of your generic thread? I never contributed to that thread because the title immediately conveyed a biased intention.
No, they blackened the reputation of themselves because of the things they did.
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:29 pm

JackC wrote:One thing that everyone does agree on is that the climate is always changing. The degree to which the climate is changing in any unprecedented manner is an enormously difficult question to answer, since direct temperature measurements are relatively new and the data regarding climate in the past is indirect and is only inferred based on extrapolations of various theories. So just answering the question of whether we are in an unprecedented period of signficant warming is difficult enough.

Now- throw on top of that the question of the degree to which human activity is influencing the climate and the issues become infinitely more complex - as our understanding of the climate is rudimentary at best. Don't forget that just a short time ago - in the late 60s - the accepted scientific view was that we were headed to a new ice age. Why weren't all those brilliant scientists now assuring us of AGW considering the warming effects of CO2 at that time????

Now we have entered the political realm in which Al Gore is the AGW Messiah. Enormous amounts of funding are available to those prepared to conduct research that might support the AGW. But it is unlikely that you will get any funding for a project intended develop data that might undermine the AGW theory. Tenure is a reward for being part of the AGW crowd, and likely denied if you aren't. Governments are talking about transferring trillions to others even though they have no clear idea what the real effects of AGW will be - even if it is true.

And in all of this, we have a fact, acknowledged by the principal proponents of AGW in the "hacked emails", that there has been no warming in 10 years and that NONE of the models of the AGW crowed can explain why this is the case.

In this context a bit of modesty/scepticism seems to me to be warranted. That is not, however, what is happening. To the contrary, Al Gore and others in the the AGW crowd assure us that those who do not accept the faith are the same as "Holocaust deniers".

In this highly politicized environment, there are many ways in which scientific research may unintentionally be driven to the desired conclusions. Moreover, the abuse of those who - in good faith - suggest that the issue is not settled is as intense as it is unscientific and wrong.

While I don't dispute that AGW MIGHT be true, I am not prepared to say it is "settled". Moreover, even if human activity is effecting the climate to some degree, there are still incredibly difficult/complex questions remaining as to HOW MUCH of a contribution there is and whether anything can be done to SIGNIFICANTLY effect what is going on with the climate. All still seem to me to be open questions, even if I accept that some AGW is in fact occuring.
Jack,

I can see that you've yet to actually delve into any the science on the issue. I highly suggest you do some of your own research on the subject. It's very unlikely any significant amount of AGW is occurring now or will in the future. The reason is the relative proportions of the contents of the atmosphere and the fundamental physics involved just don't jive with the computer models coming out of the IPCC. In short, the IPCC modelers have the feedbacks 180 degrees wrong. Satellite data on temperatures and energy fluxes has shown this. The most likely explanation is the models don't do clouds properly (or even at all). I'm telling you this stuff has pretty much been debunked - save for some kind of breaking new discovery or evidence.

Clouds are really key to understanding the whole energy balance of the climate and the atmosphere. It's very likely that water - starting in the ocean, released as water vapor, then forming into clouds and back down again in the form of precipitation, pretty much regulates the temperature of the earth. A small increase in the heat forcing of the atmosphere from a doubling of CO2 could easily be negated by just a slight increase in overall cloud coverage. In all likelihood it takes external forces to effect significant change.
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Thu Jul 08, 2010 9:43 pm

JackC wrote:I have been involved in several research misconduct investigations and litigation. I can assure you that you can can find a panel that will conclude almost anything you want it to. In order for this finding of to have any real credibility/interest on the underlying scientific question, it would have to be made by groups that at least included some sceptics of AGW. Did it????
Exactly. I'm continually amazed at the naivete of so many people. No wonder they believe in this whole thing.
JackC wrote:Besides, this finding only purports to "exonerate" them from the most egregious forms of scientific misconduct - intentional fraudulent misconduct that relatively few people suspected them of.
Intentional fraud is very difficult to prove in circumstances like this. For example, read the Wegman report on the Mann hockey stick graph - he completely rips it to shreds statistically and scientifically; however, outright fraud on Mann's part cannot really be proven, though when you see what he actually did to come up with that graph it's pretty obvious it was fraud.
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:55 pm

piston wrote:Careful, David, not to become a new religious fanatic! Last time I checked, the only scientists who do have any expertise in climate change matters opposed to climate warming models are essentially geologists who adopt a very long term perspective. The problem with their methodology, over several millenia, is that this climate warming trend is very short term by comparison and it is inextricably linked to a recent increase in consumption of fossil fuels, along with deforestation and other human-made changes.

In any case, these skeptical geologists, often connected with the petroleum-product industry, are indeed a small minority. But it's easy to lose sight of how small a minority they are because of all the pseudo scientific editorials authored by individuals who have absolutely no credentials on this topic.
????????
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

HoustonDavid
Posts: 1222
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:20 am
Location: Houston, Texas, USA

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by HoustonDavid » Fri Jul 09, 2010 12:26 am

Randall, neither you nor I nor anyone on this Forum can claim scientific expertise on any
subject (so far as I know), much less global warning. We have all read a greater or lesser
number of articles by scientists and opinionators (like Al Gore) but individually, I would doubt
anyone here's expertise beyond personal opinion based on their own readings and prejudices.

My objection to your "opinion" is that it doesn't question the science of AGW, but claims it is
a new religion which is misleading the masses and reaping political and economic rewards to
become a new religious "power" over the people. That is a long way of saying, it is a conspiracy
theory and that is what I object to.

My personal opinions on the AGW issue are as valid as anyone else's opinion, including yours,
but I dispute vigorously your implication we are in the throes of a mind-altering conspiracy by
the "bad guys" to take over the world on the pretext of AGW!! Everyone else in this discussion
seems to be arguing the convoluted sides of the AGW issue. Your point was a not AGW but
a conspiracy to make people behave in a predictable fashion that would enrich and empower
the manipulators. Just another conspiracy theory, which you avow you don't believe in.
"May You be born in interesting (maybe confusing?) times" - Chinese Proverb (or Curse)

diegobueno
Winds Specialist
Posts: 2552
Joined: Thu Apr 07, 2005 2:26 pm
Contact:

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by diegobueno » Fri Jul 09, 2010 12:13 pm

It seems these days it's not enough merely to disagree. One has to totally demonize ones opponent. One has to Darth-Vadarize them, make them the embodiment of total evil. Surely these evil scientists must have a Death Star up their sleeves, right?
Black lives matter.

JackC
Posts: 2987
Joined: Tue May 20, 2003 10:57 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by JackC » Fri Jul 09, 2010 12:21 pm

diegobueno wrote:It seems these days it's not enough merely to disagree. One has to totally demonize ones opponent. One has to Darth-Vadarize them, make them the embodiment of total evil. Surely these evil scientists must have a Death Star up their sleeves, right?
That's a fair point, but don't be one-sided. If you truly believe that it is bad to demonize those with whom you "merely disagree", then surely you must be quite upset at the many proponents of AGW coming to label those who "merely disagree" as "Holocaust Deniers"!!

Barry
Posts: 10344
Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2004 3:50 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by Barry » Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:03 pm

diegobueno wrote:It seems these days it's not enough merely to disagree. One has to totally demonize ones opponent. One has to Darth-Vadarize them, make them the embodiment of total evil. Surely these evil scientists must have a Death Star up their sleeves, right?
Couldn't agree more. I wish I had a dollar for every time I've heard a Democrat refer to Republicans as the embodiment of heartless evil.
Last edited by Barry on Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"If this is coffee, please bring me some tea; but if this is tea, please bring me some coffee." - Abraham Lincoln

"Although prepared for martyrdom, I preferred that it be postponed." - Winston Churchill

"Before I refuse to take your questions, I have an opening statement." - Ronald Reagan

http://www.davidstuff.com/political/wmdquotes.htm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pbp0hur ... re=related

HoustonDavid
Posts: 1222
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:20 am
Location: Houston, Texas, USA

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by HoustonDavid » Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:53 pm

diegobueno wrote:Surely these evil scientists must have a Death Star up their sleeves, right?
That's what Randall seems to be saying. He is not arguing for or against one side or the other
of the AGW debate, he is clearly saying there is indeed a scientific conspiracy to enrich and
empower those in charge. It is all a vast conspiracy to impoverish the lemmings for the sake
of the powerful, and convince them it is the right thing to do. He calls it history repeating
itself, as if that were forever the way of the world. There certainly have been a multitude
of people who believed such was the case down through history, I just don't happen to be
one of them.
"May You be born in interesting (maybe confusing?) times" - Chinese Proverb (or Curse)

diegobueno
Winds Specialist
Posts: 2552
Joined: Thu Apr 07, 2005 2:26 pm
Contact:

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by diegobueno » Fri Jul 09, 2010 3:30 pm

Barry wrote: Couldn't agree more. I wish I had a dollar for every time I've heard a Democrat refer to Republicans as the embodiment of heartless evil.
I wish I had a dollar for every one of your "... but liberals do it too" posts. What part of "two wrongs don't make a right" don't you understand?
Black lives matter.

Barry
Posts: 10344
Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2004 3:50 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by Barry » Fri Jul 09, 2010 3:43 pm

diegobueno wrote:
Barry wrote: Couldn't agree more. I wish I had a dollar for every time I've heard a Democrat refer to Republicans as the embodiment of heartless evil.
I wish I had a dollar for every one of your "... but liberals do it too" posts. What part of "two wrongs don't make a right" don't you understand?
Pardon me for taking delight in pointing out that a wide swath of liberals on and off of this board love to call out conservatives for behaving exactly as they do (or did during the Bush years). :wink:

If two wrongs don't make a right, I suppose we can count on you visiting the Pub when you've got an opportunity to call out liberals for their poor behavior more often? Citing that old saying while simultaneously being so selective over your outrage and disgust isn't very becoming.
"If this is coffee, please bring me some tea; but if this is tea, please bring me some coffee." - Abraham Lincoln

"Although prepared for martyrdom, I preferred that it be postponed." - Winston Churchill

"Before I refuse to take your questions, I have an opening statement." - Ronald Reagan

http://www.davidstuff.com/political/wmdquotes.htm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pbp0hur ... re=related

piston
Posts: 10767
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:50 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by piston » Fri Jul 09, 2010 3:46 pm

To me the "wake up call" I would like people to experience is about the environmental impact of everyday human-made disasters, such as the Gulf oil spill. Here we are focusing on the economic impact of this calamity --to the oil drilling industry, the fishing industry, the tourist industry, and so forth-- and hardly paying any attention to what it's doing to the coastal and maritime environments of the Gulf of Mexico AND the incredible amount of methane that this calamity has released from the sea floor. Methane, a significant greenhouse agent, has been increasing in our atmosphere everywhere, including in the Arctic:
The abundance of methane in the Earth's atmosphere in 1998 was 1745 parts per billion (ppb), up from 700 ppb in 1750. By 2008, however, global methane levels, which had stayed mostly flat since 1998, had risen to 1,800 ppb. By 2010, methane levels, at least in the Arctic, were measured at 1850 ppb, a level scientists described as being higher than at any time in the previous 400,000 years. (Historically, methane concentrations in the world's atmosphere have ranged between 300 and 400 ppb during glacial periods commonlly known as ice ages, and between 600 to 700 ppb during the warm interglacial periods).

In addition, there is a large, but unknown, amount of methane in methane clathrates in the ocean floors. The Earth's crust contains huge amounts of methane. Large amounts of methane are produced anaerobically by methanogenesis. Other sources include mud volcanoes, which are connected with deep geological faults, landfill and livestock (primarily ruminants) from enteric fermentation.
In the eyes of those lovers of perfection, a work is never finished—a word that for them has no sense—but abandoned....(Paul Valéry)

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Fri Jul 09, 2010 5:25 pm

HoustonDavid wrote:Randall, neither you nor I nor anyone on this Forum can claim scientific expertise on any subject (so far as I know), much less global warning. We have all read a greater or lesser number of articles by scientists and opinionators (like Al Gore) but individually, I would doubt anyone here's expertise beyond personal opinion based on their own readings and prejudices.
Yeah I've heard this before. "We all really don't know anything - we can't know because we're not experts, so all opinions are equally valid." "There's no truth, just differences of opinion." Not true at all.

I'll ask you again, why is the science of the AGW proponents generally correct and the science of the skeptics fundamentally incorrect? Give me specifics.
HoustonDavid wrote:My objection to your "opinion" is that it doesn't question the science of AGW, but claims it is a new religion which is misleading the masses and reaping political and economic rewards to become a new religious "power" over the people. That is a long way of saying, it is a conspiracy theory and that is what I object to.
Fine, object.
HoustonDavid wrote:My personal opinions on the AGW issue are as valid as anyone else's opinion, including yours,
On what basis? That you have an equal right to have an opinion?
HoustonDavid wrote:but I dispute vigorously your implication we are in the throes of a mind-altering conspiracy by the "bad guys" to take over the world on the pretext of AGW!! Everyone else in this discussion seems to be arguing the convoluted sides of the AGW issue. Your point was a not AGW but a conspiracy to make people behave in a predictable fashion that would enrich and empower the manipulators. Just another conspiracy theory, which you avow you don't believe in.
Look, it's complicated. Their motivations are complicated. I do not think a whole bunch of people got together and conspired to make all this up if that what you're thinking. Most of them probably believe it too.
Last edited by rwetmore on Fri Jul 09, 2010 5:59 pm, edited 4 times in total.
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by rwetmore » Fri Jul 09, 2010 5:34 pm

diegobueno wrote:It seems these days it's not enough merely to disagree. One has to totally demonize ones opponent. One has to Darth-Vadarize them, make them the embodiment of total evil. Surely these evil scientists must have a Death Star up their sleeves, right?
In what way have I demonized them? Where have I referred to these scientists as being evil?
I simply stated that in any field or profession there are always a certain amount of dishonest people - people willing to cheat or sacrifice their integrity (professional or otherwise) to more quickly and easily advance themselves, make a buck, or just make their lives easier. Why this is so hard to believe or why so many of you think scientists are above these basic human things is perplexing to me.
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

Teresa B
Posts: 3057
Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 11:04 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by Teresa B » Fri Jul 09, 2010 6:34 pm

I've suspected the ice caps are melting for their own political porpoises.

Teresa
"We're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad." ~ The Cheshire Cat

Author of the novel "Creating Will"

piston
Posts: 10767
Joined: Thu Jan 04, 2007 7:50 am

Re: A wake up call to everyone...

Post by piston » Fri Jul 09, 2010 7:53 pm

Teresa B wrote:I've suspected the ice caps are melting for their own political porpoises.

Teresa
Good point!

Why should I worry about them porpoises? I live in Maine! Sometimes I wonder about my brain's chemical makeup. In a "normal" world one should observe a far greater level of environmental "consciousness" in the warmer regions -- Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Florida, etc. People further to the north, especially in the northern states and Canada, really should be the one who don't give a damn.

I don't know what's wrong with me.....
In the eyes of those lovers of perfection, a work is never finished—a word that for them has no sense—but abandoned....(Paul Valéry)

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: maestrob and 20 guests