Obama’s Phony Recovery

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rwetmore
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Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by rwetmore » Thu Feb 16, 2012 7:40 pm

Hey, anyone know about any of this?

Obama’s Phony Recovery
By Dick Morris on February 15, 2012

President Obama, faced with no recovery from the recession as he enters an election year, has come up with a handy political gimmick: Fake the statistics.

The economic data that portend recovery are totally and completely inventions of Obama’s political operation. The reality is that no recovery is taking place!


Economist James Fitzgibbon, of the Highlander Fund, explains how cooked the economic statistics on which the president bases his claims of recovery really are.

Begin with “gains” in the stock market. Fitzgibbon explains that they are no indication of changes in the public mood because the public isn’t doing the investing anymore. He notes that HFT (high frequency trade computers) now “account for 80 percent [of the market's] daily business. No one else is left because they lost their money in 2008 and the public has fled the market … Total NYSE volume is 67 percent lower on average than in 2008. Volume is 29 percent lower this year compared to 2011. The prices [have] no serious meaning.”

Have consumers, as alleged, started borrowing again? Not really. Fitzgibbon explains that “credit use has surged only because the Obama administration changed the student loan program to a direct program and those loans are now counted as part of this metric. It is not comparable to anything prior to 2011.” And, he adds ominously, “massive credit card use as measured against actual verifiable sales shows the increase is in borrowed funds to pay for food! Not my idea of a healthy sign.”

How about lower unemployment figures? Fitzgibbon says they are a “joke.” He says that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has “completely changed the … metrics as of January 2012. None of the current percentages are relatable to anything prior to 2012!” He points out that the January unemployment data are heavily adjusted for “seasonal variations.” He notes that “the actual data [show that the economy] lost 2.7 million jobs in January.” And that’s just the numerator. For the denominator — the number of people in the workforce — the data “also shows about 1.2 million people magically left the workforce.” He says one has to go back to the early 1980s to see labor force participation as low as it is now.

Auto sales? He says “auto sales are when the manufacturer dumps cars and trucks on a dealer. Inventory stuffing! It has no relationship to actual sales to a consumer. Thanks to Obama, GM dealers are drowning in product no one wants to buy. It is a meaningless data point. Only dealer-to-consumer data is useful. It is not showing any growth at all.”

Housing? He says positive news in this sector is unreliable. “The raw data we get shows it is worse than last year and in some regions [the] worst ever since the ’60s.”

So it appears that Obama’s reelection strategy hinges on asking people to believe the data he puts before them rather than the evidence of their own eyes. It won’t work.

Any economic recovery is only publicly noticed eight to 12 quarters after it has taken place. Ask George H.W. Bush, who lost the 1992 election despite very positive economic news at the end of his term. Or ask Clinton, who lost Congress despite two years of favorable job-creation numbers. It takes awhile for the good economic news to sink in. And, when there is no good news, just faked government propaganda, it takes even longer to sink in!

People will understand that Obama’s data are a lie. The economy is not some abstract issue. Real people do not depend on changes in the unemployment-rate data to gauge their mood. They are more interested in whether they can get good jobs themselves. Obama’s attempt to rig the statistics won’t work. Indeed, it is a pathetic attempt.
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

keaggy220
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Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by keaggy220 » Thu Feb 16, 2012 8:14 pm

High frequency trade computers and the government cooking the numbers are becoming more and more of a concern for me. To be fair, the government has been cooking the numbers for 20 years and it's only natural that they make the reports even more fictitious to avoid the general awareness of continuing economic failure.

I think anyone who's been to the grocery story, gas station or paying for health care knows that true inflation hasn't been averaging 2.5% over the last couple of years. :lol:

I've pulled quite a bit of money out of the market and I'm actually seriously considering becoming a landlord.
Last edited by keaggy220 on Thu Feb 16, 2012 8:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"I guess we're all, or most of us, the wards of the nineteenth-century sciences which denied existence of anything it could not reason or explain. The things we couldn't explain went right on but not with our blessing... So many old and lovely things are stored in the world's attic, because we don't want them around us and we don't dare throw them out."
— John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent


"He has shown you, O mortal, what is good.
And what does the LORD require of you?
To act justly and to love mercy
and to walk humbly with your God."
- Micah 6:8

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by rwetmore » Thu Feb 16, 2012 8:23 pm

keaggy220 wrote:I've pulled quite a bit of money out of the market
I don't blame you.
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

RebLem
Posts: 9114
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Location: Albuquerque, NM, USA 87112, 2 blocks west of the Breaking Bad carwash.
Contact:

Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by RebLem » Thu Feb 16, 2012 8:26 pm

Then why has GM added a third shift and 700 jobs to its high-end truck factory in Flint, Michigan? It must be because they have customers, and the kind of trucks they build there are ones that cost $75,000 and more. These are trucks being bought by businesses to deliver goods. Why would that be if the economy were as bad as you say?

I say YOU'RE the phonies.

The Republicons know it, too. That's why the GOPer presidential debate has turned to abortion and other sorts of culture war issues, like the threat women present to freedom. They know the economy is improving and the economic issues are going to be less important in November than it seemed just a few months ago.
Don't drink and drive. You might spill it.--J. Eugene Baker, aka my late father
"We're not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term."--Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S. Carolina.
"Racism is America's Original Sin."--Francis Cardinal George, former Roman Catholic Archbishop of Chicago.

keaggy220
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Location: Washington DC Area

Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by keaggy220 » Thu Feb 16, 2012 8:33 pm

RebLem wrote:Then why has GM added a third shift and 700 jobs to its high-end truck factory in Flint, Michigan? It must be because they have customers, and the kind of trucks they build there are ones that cost $75,000 and more. These are trucks being bought by businesses to deliver goods. Why would that be if the economy were as bad as you say?

I say YOU'RE the phonies.
I don't know... Why is China building cities with no people to live in them? Did you know that last quarter GM produced a "profit" of well over a billion dollars and the stock went down? All's not as it seems...
Last edited by keaggy220 on Thu Feb 16, 2012 8:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"I guess we're all, or most of us, the wards of the nineteenth-century sciences which denied existence of anything it could not reason or explain. The things we couldn't explain went right on but not with our blessing... So many old and lovely things are stored in the world's attic, because we don't want them around us and we don't dare throw them out."
— John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent


"He has shown you, O mortal, what is good.
And what does the LORD require of you?
To act justly and to love mercy
and to walk humbly with your God."
- Micah 6:8

rwetmore
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 7:24 pm

Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by rwetmore » Thu Feb 16, 2012 8:35 pm

Proof Of U.S. Greater Depression (SLV, GLD, SDS, FAZ, AGQ)

February 16th, 2012

Jeff Nielson: It has become increasingly difficult to engage in credible economic analysis, especially with respect to the U.S. economy. The problem: ever more limited sources of uncorrupted data, while the farcical “official statistics” have long since been totally divorced from the real world.

Fortunately we have been presented with some raw, uncorrupted data which demonstrates in conclusive terms that the U.S. economy is literally shriveling before our eyes: a 21st century economy with plummeting energy consumption, and even a declining use of electricity.

As I was sifting through all of Bloomberg’s propaganda on the latest U.S. trade numbers (and trying to latch onto a few facts), I came across one very peculiar passage:

…American companies also bought more consumer household items, automobiles and parts, and crude oil from overseas.

Exports increased 0.7 percent to $178.8 billion, boosted by record sales of petroleum to buyers overseas. That caused the trade gap excluding petroleum to widen even more than the deficit overall…

The great U.S. economy, the largest oil-glutton in the history of humanity (by several multiples) is now a “net energy exporter”. How can this be possible? The U.S. economy has contracted so severely (already) that the only way that U.S. refineries can sell all the petroleum products they produce is to sell them to the growing economies of “emerging market” nations.

Reflecting the broad-based collapse of the U.S. economy, these refineries are now exporting all categories of petroleum products: diesel, jet fuel, and even gasoline are now being exported in large quantities, month-after-month by U.S. refineries. Recall that it was only four, short years ago that many American politicians were alarmed by the crisis of the “lack of U.S. refining capacity”. No new refineries have been constructed in the U.S. in more than 30 years, and at that time those refineries were straining to meet the demand of solely the U.S. domestic market. With that domestic market collapsing, these refineries are now straining to find enough foreign buyers to unload all of their inventories.

Given these facts alone, it is utterly absurd for the U.S. government to pretend that the U.S. economy is growing. Note that the government claims that most of this growth is occurring in agriculture and manufacturing – both very energy-intensive industries. There’s no doubt that the energy-intensive agriculture sector is thriving, a result of a growing global “appetite” and Wall Street-induced shortages in most commodities. So with the large U.S. agriculture sector gobbling up more energy than ever, what does that say about the rest of the (decaying) U.S. economy?

Let us not forget that the U.S. population continues to grow. More people using much, much, less energy; and this is called a “growing economy”? Absurd. Even more absurd, this steadily growing population has been using much less electricity, going back to around 2007.

Mark Lundeen provided a very detailed analysis of the consumption of U.S. electricity in a recent commentary. It shows U.S. electrical consumption peaking in approximately 2006, and then beginning a distinct decline starting in 2007. Yes, power demand has “bounced back” somewhat from the worst of the collapse – but at levels still more than 3% lower than in 2007. Put another way, the supposed “U.S. economic recovery” has only resulted in roughly half of that lost demand being restored.

This minimal boost in electrical demand reflects nothing more than pent-up demand from the increase in population which has taken place since 2007, and in no way is suggestive of any economic growth. And we must keep in mind that this is taking place in a climate of ultra-insane monetary policy: interest rates permanently frozen at 0%. Even with this maximum stimulus, the dying U.S. economy is unable to come close to maintaining its level of demand for electricity.

We must also never forget that all of this decline in energy and electricity consumption comes after the largest/most reckless fiscal stimulus as well. The U.S., with by far the world’s largest national deficit (even using the absurd, official number), has not yet begun the fiscal tightening being attempted in most other Western nations (with the notable exception of Canada).

What happens when this dying economy actually turns off the taps with all of this “easy money” from the government (which the U.S. government obviously cannot afford)? If the most insane/extreme fiscal and monetary stimulus in the history of the global economy has produced nothing but further economic decay, what happens when this unsustainable stimulus ceases to be sustained?

The obvious answer to that question is a Soviet Union-like economic implosion, assuming that reckless money-printing doesn’t produce the nightmare of hyperinflation first. [Related: SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca:SLV), ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSEArca:AGQ)]

How sick is the U.S. economy? Bloomberg was recently trumpeting the news that construction of “multi-family units” in the U.S. housing market (the low end of the market) was rising to the same level as in 2008. Yes, and everyone can remember what a wonderful year that 2008 was for U.S. housing. And this is the good news?

Actually it is. Construction of single-family units remain at all-time lows since they first began gathering such data on the U.S. housing market. Thus we are to believe that the U.S. economy is growing and producing new, net jobs each month with plummeting energy consumption, declining usage of electricity, and with the propagandists cheering the housing market because things are now only as bad as they were in 2008.

Again, what happens when the unsustainable stimulus can no longer be sustained?

This is a dying economy in the midst of a Greater Depression. Even with B.S. Bernanke’s permanent 0% interest rates (something which would have been totally unthinkable just four years earlier), this monetary defibrillator cannot continue to feign “life” in this economic corpse. The moment that fiscal tightening inevitably begins, the full brunt of the U.S.’s Greater Depression will bludgeon the American people – and hopefully (finally) awaken then from their terminal apathy.

Any further pretensions of economic growth and job-creation can now only be regarded as absurd and transparent fiction. The world’s great energy glutton is claiming a robust “economic recovery” without using any energy. The statistical charlatans at work for the U.S. government can pretend there is positive GDP growth. They can pretend there is positive jobs growth. But they cannot pretend to consume energy.

There was never any “economic reckoning” for the U.S. economy following the economic collapse which began (in earnest) in 2007. Reckless money-printing (the most reckless in history); reckless fiscal spending (the most reckless in history); and absurd statistical lies (the largest in history) have merely provided a coat of whitewash over top of this economic train-wreck…and now the paint is beginning to peel. [Related: ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca:SDS), Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X ETF (NYSEArca:FAZ)]
"Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted. That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history."
- Aldous Huxley

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened."
-Winston Churchill

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one!”
–Charles Mackay

"It doesn't matter how smart you are - if you don't stop and think."
-Thomas Sowell

"It's one of the functions of the mainstream news media to fact-check political speech and where there are lies, to reveal them to the voters."
-John F. (of CMG)

RebLem
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Joined: Tue May 17, 2005 1:06 pm
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Contact:

Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by RebLem » Thu Feb 16, 2012 9:20 pm

keaggy220 wrote:
RebLem wrote:Then why has GM added a third shift and 700 jobs to its high-end truck factory in Flint, Michigan? It must be because they have customers, and the kind of trucks they build there are ones that cost $75,000 and more. These are trucks being bought by businesses to deliver goods. Why would that be if the economy were as bad as you say?

I say YOU'RE the phonies.
I don't know... Why is China building cities with no people to live in them? Did you know that last quarter GM produced a "profit" of well over a billion dollars and the stock went down? All's not as it seems...
Did you know that my portfolio is up 7.17% so far this year as of tonight's closing prices? I wish I had more money to put into it.
Don't drink and drive. You might spill it.--J. Eugene Baker, aka my late father
"We're not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term."--Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S. Carolina.
"Racism is America's Original Sin."--Francis Cardinal George, former Roman Catholic Archbishop of Chicago.

keaggy220
Posts: 4721
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:42 pm
Location: Washington DC Area

Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by keaggy220 » Thu Feb 16, 2012 10:35 pm

RebLem wrote:
keaggy220 wrote:
RebLem wrote:Then why has GM added a third shift and 700 jobs to its high-end truck factory in Flint, Michigan? It must be because they have customers, and the kind of trucks they build there are ones that cost $75,000 and more. These are trucks being bought by businesses to deliver goods. Why would that be if the economy were as bad as you say?

I say YOU'RE the phonies.
I don't know... Why is China building cities with no people to live in them? Did you know that last quarter GM produced a "profit" of well over a billion dollars and the stock went down? All's not as it seems...
Did you know that my portfolio is up 7.17% so far this year as of tonight's closing prices? I wish I had more money to put into it.
Don't get me wrong I still have a fair amount of money in the market, heck, Adobe has given me 1,650 shares for free in the last year, plus as an Adobe employee I'm buying thousands of dollars a month of Adobe stock at a 15% discount from the stocks lowest price over the prior 2 year period. Right now I'm locked in at $23.80 a share and the stock is currently close to $33 a share - about a 38% profit. So I'd be a fool not to be in the market with such advantages. My 401k is also in the market, but my IRA is not. My two girls college funds are in mutual funds. I've got a substantial amount sitting in cash and that's the money I'm thinking about using to buy a townhouse and becoming a landlord. 5 years ago I would have never considered this - I would have just put the cash in the market. My financial advisor even supports the townhouse move which was surprising to me.

My wife's 2004 Honda Odyssey just flipped 100K miles, but I think we're going to keep it at least another two years. Eventually I'll need to start setting aside money to buy her a newer vehicle. We're driving it to Florida for vacation next month. My wife refuses to fly - ever... My 2005 Prius only has 75K miles so I'll be hanging on to that for a long time.
"I guess we're all, or most of us, the wards of the nineteenth-century sciences which denied existence of anything it could not reason or explain. The things we couldn't explain went right on but not with our blessing... So many old and lovely things are stored in the world's attic, because we don't want them around us and we don't dare throw them out."
— John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent


"He has shown you, O mortal, what is good.
And what does the LORD require of you?
To act justly and to love mercy
and to walk humbly with your God."
- Micah 6:8

jbuck919
Military Band Specialist
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Location: Stony Creek, New York

Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by jbuck919 » Thu Feb 16, 2012 11:31 pm

I was afraid this was going to be about some skeleton in Obama's closet. (If he pulls another Clinton, he deserves whatever happens.)

There's nothing remarkable about it. All one has to do is hit the right keys at the right time and the instrument plays itself.
-- Johann Sebastian Bach

keaggy220
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Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:42 pm
Location: Washington DC Area

Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by keaggy220 » Fri Feb 17, 2012 7:32 am

jbuck919 wrote:I was afraid this was going to be about some skeleton in Obama's closet. (If he pulls another Clinton, he deserves whatever happens.)
What do you mean by skeletons and pull another Clinton? Lewinsky?
"I guess we're all, or most of us, the wards of the nineteenth-century sciences which denied existence of anything it could not reason or explain. The things we couldn't explain went right on but not with our blessing... So many old and lovely things are stored in the world's attic, because we don't want them around us and we don't dare throw them out."
— John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent


"He has shown you, O mortal, what is good.
And what does the LORD require of you?
To act justly and to love mercy
and to walk humbly with your God."
- Micah 6:8

jbuck919
Military Band Specialist
Posts: 26856
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2004 10:15 pm
Location: Stony Creek, New York

Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by jbuck919 » Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:11 pm

keaggy220 wrote:
jbuck919 wrote:I was afraid this was going to be about some skeleton in Obama's closet. (If he pulls another Clinton, he deserves whatever happens.)
What do you mean by skeletons and pull another Clinton? Lewinsky?
I was jokingly interpreting "recovery" in the twelve-step sense. Yes, I was referring to the outed philanderers who have either been or wanted to be president, of whom I fervently hope Obama is not the next example and the Republican candidate is. :wink:

There's nothing remarkable about it. All one has to do is hit the right keys at the right time and the instrument plays itself.
-- Johann Sebastian Bach

Modernistfan
Posts: 2266
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Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by Modernistfan » Sat Feb 18, 2012 12:00 pm

Sorry, I don't believe that the numbers provided in the first post are credible. If there were even a shred of credibility to them, the Republicans would be whacking Obama with them at every opportunity. Instead, we are getting a campaign based around birth control (birth control?? in 2012??), gay rights, abortion, and a phony "war against religion," even from Romney--there is barely a peep about the economy.

With respect to energy, please recall that many people have been replacing their gas-guzzlers with smaller vehicles, either hybrids or vehicles with 4-cylinder engines. This will lead to lower overall gasoline use even if the miles driven increase. (Please recall that there are now a large number of even non-hybrid vehicles that can exceed 40 mpg on the highway, such as the new Ford Focus and Ford Fiesta.) People have also been moving back from the suburbs to the cities, which will also reduce overall energy use. These steps do not mean that we are poorer, just smarter with respect to our use of energy. (We still use more energy per capita than some affluent Northern European nations with a comparable standard of living, but the gap is narrowing.)

keaggy220
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Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:42 pm
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Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by keaggy220 » Sat Feb 18, 2012 1:56 pm

jbuck919 wrote:
keaggy220 wrote:
jbuck919 wrote:I was afraid this was going to be about some skeleton in Obama's closet. (If he pulls another Clinton, he deserves whatever happens.)
What do you mean by skeletons and pull another Clinton? Lewinsky?
I was jokingly interpreting "recovery" in the twelve-step sense. Yes, I was referring to the outed philanderers who have either been or wanted to be president, of whom I fervently hope Obama is not the next example and the Republican candidate is. :wink:
I could name scores of things that Obama, in my opinion, fails at, but I don't believe he's a woman hater like Clinton or JFK. I believe he respects his wife and his marriage vows.
"I guess we're all, or most of us, the wards of the nineteenth-century sciences which denied existence of anything it could not reason or explain. The things we couldn't explain went right on but not with our blessing... So many old and lovely things are stored in the world's attic, because we don't want them around us and we don't dare throw them out."
— John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent


"He has shown you, O mortal, what is good.
And what does the LORD require of you?
To act justly and to love mercy
and to walk humbly with your God."
- Micah 6:8

lennygoran
Posts: 19347
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Location: new york city

Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by lennygoran » Sun Feb 19, 2012 8:32 am

keaggy220 wrote:
My wife's 2004 Honda Odyssey just flipped 100K miles,
I don't want to jinx myself but I'm proud of my 1995 Saturn--150, 000 miles and still running well! So you want to be a landlord--who's your model for this-Donald Trump! Regards, Len [fleeing]

keaggy220
Posts: 4721
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:42 pm
Location: Washington DC Area

Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by keaggy220 » Sun Feb 19, 2012 9:38 am

lennygoran wrote:
keaggy220 wrote:
My wife's 2004 Honda Odyssey just flipped 100K miles,
I don't want to jinx myself but I'm proud of my 1995 Saturn--150, 000 miles and still running well! So you want to be a landlord--who's your model for this-Donald Trump! Regards, Len [fleeing]
No, Donald Trump is too risky. His model is to be leveraged heavily. He's rich, but he's gone bankrupt three times. That's a little too much excitement for me.

I'll go to a CPA with experience being a landlord and find out exactly the amount to put down on a townhouse to produce just enough positive cash flow to neutralize with tax write offs. This is a much safer model.
"I guess we're all, or most of us, the wards of the nineteenth-century sciences which denied existence of anything it could not reason or explain. The things we couldn't explain went right on but not with our blessing... So many old and lovely things are stored in the world's attic, because we don't want them around us and we don't dare throw them out."
— John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent


"He has shown you, O mortal, what is good.
And what does the LORD require of you?
To act justly and to love mercy
and to walk humbly with your God."
- Micah 6:8

lennygoran
Posts: 19347
Joined: Tue Mar 27, 2007 9:28 pm
Location: new york city

Re: Obama’s Phony Recovery

Post by lennygoran » Sun Feb 19, 2012 9:43 am

keaggy220 wrote:That's a little too much excitement for me.
What if you get a pain-in-the-neck tenant--who needs it? We might have had a chance to get a variance and rent our starter house--people asked if it could be rented out. Fortunately we don't need the money or the headaches of being a landlord! Regards, Len

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