The electoral college vote

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John F
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The electoral college vote

Post by John F » Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:17 am

This, of course, is what really counts, as we were reminded in 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote but lost anyway. The invaluable RealClearPolitics is keeping track of the likely winners state by state, and as of today it estimates that Hillary Clinton should win 260 votes, Donald Trump should get 165, while 113 are up for grabs. The number needed to win is 270.

This might seem surprising if you look at one of the electoral maps here and elsewhere. It looks like more area and more of the states are colored shades of Republican red than Democratic blue. But with only 4 exceptions, the Trump states have low populations and electoral college votes in the single digits. Clinton's double digit states number 11. Six double-digit states are toss-ups, notably Florida.

Polls limited to a single state are less numerous, less frequent, and, I've read, less reliable than the national polls we keep hearing about. The chance that this estimate will be off is correspondingly greater. But this looks like the best preview of election day that we've got and are likely to get.
John Francis

lennygoran
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Re: The electoral college vote

Post by lennygoran » Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:45 am

John F wrote: Six double-digit states are toss-ups, notably Florida.
North Carolina could give it to her! Haven't seen any news from Gov Haley since the locker room debacle. Regards, Len

karlhenning
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Re: The electoral college vote

Post by karlhenning » Wed Oct 12, 2016 4:46 pm

A new poll shows a tie in Utah. Be skeptical. Be amazed.

On Wednesday morning, Deseret News reported on a new poll in the state from a Utah-based company called Y2 Analytics. Trump's lead in this poll is 0 percent, a tie with Clinton at 26 percent support. McMullin has jumped to 22 percent, within the margin of error, and Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 16.

There's not a lot of polling done in Utah, so it's worth remembering that this is one poll, in isolation. And that said: Dang.

RTWT here.

Cheers,
~k.
Karl Henning, PhD
Composer & Clarinetist
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http://members.tripod.com/~Karl_P_Henning/
http://henningmusick.blogspot.com/
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karlhenning
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Re: The electoral college vote

Post by karlhenning » Wed Oct 12, 2016 4:49 pm

What I was really looking for, is a piece which discusses just how troubled an electoral college map El Tupé "enjoys." In part because he's letting slip many states which would have been reliable for any normal Republican candidate.

Cheers,
~k.
Karl Henning, PhD
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston, Massachusetts
http://members.tripod.com/~Karl_P_Henning/
http://henningmusick.blogspot.com/
Published by Lux Nova Press
http://www.luxnova.com/

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