The last polls

[John F]

According to the Real Clear Politics average, the last national polls have Hillary Clinton leading in the popular vote by 2.6 points, 46.9% to 44.3%. Omitting the LA Times/Stanford poll as most other averages do - an outlier that has stood alone in predicting a Trump majority through thick and thin - the margin would be 3.5 points. The New York Times poll average gives Clinton a 3.0% lead; HuffPost's average, a 5.2% lead. For comparison, Barack Obama's margin of victory in 2012 was 3.9 points.

In the electoral college, Clinton is predicted to have 204 sure votes compared with 164 for Trump; 171 votes in 14 states are rated too close to call. Clinton leads in 7 of these states with 95 electoral votes, giving her more than enough to win, but it doesn't look like a landslide unless the state polls are off.

22 Republican Senators are running for reelection; 2 have retired and their seats are open. 7 Democrats are running for reelection; 3 have retired and their seats are open. Democrats must take five Republican seats for a clear majority, including the two independents who caucus with them; if they win four, they'll still have a majority when the vice president casts a tie-breaking vote.

Most of the Republican incumbents and all of the Democrats are expected to win reelection easily. The most vulnerable Republican seats, according to the Real Clear Politics poll averages, are:

Illinois. Tammy Duckworth (D) leads incumbent Mark Kirk by 13.3%. Clinton leads by 11.5.

Indiana. Todd Young (R) leads Evan Bayh to succeed Dan Coats (R) by 0.7%. Polls are contradictory. Trump leads by 10.7.

Missouri. Roy Blunt (R, incumbent) leads Jason Kander by 1.5%. Polls are contradictory. Trump leads by 11.8.

Nevada. Joe Heck (R) leads Catherine Cortez Masto by 1.4%. Polls are contradictory. Trump leads by 2.2.

New Hampshire. Kelly Ayotte (R, incumbent) leads Maggie Hassan by 2.4%. Polls are contradictory. Trump leads by 2.0.

North Carolina. Richard Burr (R, incumbent) leads Deborah Ross by 2.5%. Polls are contradictory. Trump leads by 1.5.

Pennsylvania. Katie McGinty (D) leads incumbent Pat Toomey by 2%. Clinton leads by 2.8.

Wisconsin. Russ Feingold (D) leads incumbent Ron Johnson by 2.7%. Clinton leads by 5.5.

Some real nail-biters there! Polls on the Senate races are few and none are recent, so they may be no better predictors than tea leaves. And how people say they'll vote isn't necessarily how they actually will vote. But if the polls have got it right, the Republicans will lose at most 3 Senate seats and will keep their majority.

[John F]

The Washington Post has run a very long piece based on interviews with campaign insiders of both parties with the headline, "Why Democrats are likelier than not to win the Senate majority." I understand that the Democrats, at least, have more precise polling than the various organizations in the Real Clear Politics averages, so their opinions may be worth reading.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/pow ... 085905dea/

[Modernistfan]

I'm still fretting and am extremely worried. I still fear that there is this avalanche of white working-class Trump voters who are not being counted in the polls, either because they are not being polled for some reason or because they are telling the pollsters that they are undecided or for Clinton in fear of social opprobrium. Remember Brexit?

[John F]

There is an avalanche of voters, but they're Hispanics and few of them are expected to vote for Trump. As for covert Trump supporters, that's the opposite of what the Trumpites are; there's no reason why they should deceive pollsters to make Trump's support appear less than it is. If anything, to the contrary. As for social opprobrium, how would anyone know what they told some anonymous pollster? Of course you can worry all you like, but needless stress like that can't be good for your health.

[living_stradivarius]

There is an avalanche of voters, but they're Hispanics and few of them are expected to vote for Trump. As for covert Trump supporters, that's the opposite of what the Trumpites are; there's no reason why they should deceive pollsters to make Trump's support appear less than it is. If anything, to the contrary. As for social opprobrium, how would anyone know what they told some anonymous pollster? Of course you can worry all you like, but needless stress like that can't be good for your health.

looks like those white working class voters are showing up after all

[John F]

Yes, clearly I was wrong, and so were just about all the polls - and you and Lenny and others were right to be worried. As I write this, the counting isn't over and Clinton can still win, but she needs to win three big states and is trailing in two of them. It looks like the Senate is lost too, and therefore the Supreme Court. Batten down the hatches.

I didn't believe that Trump, the master con-man, could con the American people, but a gullible majority of them have bought what he was selling. But then, I've always been an optimist, and a believer in the power of reason and good sense. The more fool I.

[Sapphire]

I watched the whole election count in the UK on BBC TV. Like most other people, my guess based on the last set of polls was that Clinton would win. But as it unfolded with Trump winning Ohio, then Florida the writing was clearly on the wall. At that stage I had a strong sense of déjà vu with regard to the two major elections we've had here in the UK over the past year, the General Election and more recently the EU Referendum (Brexit). In both cases the polls got it wrong and the unexpected happened. Fortunately, I was happy with the outcome in the UK on both occasions.

[living_stradivarius]

Mainstream media got it so wrong it is embarrassing.