Dead Heat in TX: Texas could become a swing state where Trump has to pour in resources

[jserraglio]

As of now and of course that could change, Trump is behind in Penn, Michigan, Forida and Wisconsin which are threatening to flip back to the Dems in 2020.

Some polls show him a bit behind in Ohio, and tied with Biden in Texas. That is pretty shocking, especially Ohio which I had written off two months ago.

DALLAS MORNING NEWS New poll: Donald Trump, Joe Biden locked in dead heat for Texas https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dallas ... utType=amp

[barney]

Don't keep putting these up!!! I can't help reading, and it just raises hopes that will be dashed in November.
In the memorable words of John Cleese, "“It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand."
It terrifies me, Barry notwithstanding, that so many Americans back Trump.

[jserraglio]

Don't keep putting these up!!!

Polling aside, I agree Trump will be hard to beat in November, quite apart from the fact that as sitting president he can make the proboscis wag the elephant anytime he so chooses.

But we really must not stop trying to send him packing or give up hope. He may even, in the words of Richard Nixon, "destroy himself."

The American fringe Right needs to take notice: this virus crisis has clearly set into motion an ominous shift away from Trump among Independents, even here in Ohio. Our governor (a very, very conservative Republican) enjoys twice the approval rating on his covid leadership as Trump does.

Righties be warned. As Ohio goes, so goes the nation.

As I've said before, if the upcoming election ever comes down to a referendum on Trump, he loses. Because his own likability is largely zilch, it is imperative that he blast away at Biden's favorabilty numbers by any and all means at his disposal.

[Barry]

Don't keep putting these up!!! I can't help reading, and it just raises hopes that will be dashed in November.

My paper published a poll that showed Hillary up by 11 points in PA fairly late in the race. A lot of media outlets cherry-pick the polls that show their side doing better. That was part of the reason people were shocked last time.

Having said that, it's true that the combination of Mexican immigration and tech/health/science people moving to the Austin region has made Texas more competitive.

[jserraglio]

A lot of media outlets cherry-pick the polls that show their side doing better.

The implication being that the Dallas Morning News cherry picks its polls to fit a "Mainstream Media" bias. Now that's NEWS!

[Barry]

A lot of media outlets cherry-pick the polls that show their side doing better.

The implication being that the Dallas Morning News cherry picks its polls to fit a "Mainstream Media" bias. Now that's NEWS!

I can't speak to this specific instance, and I'm not accusing the Dallas Morning News of doing that here. I'm merely letting Barney know that, generally speaking, his fears are not unfounded. They may also have a polling firm that leans left. The paper in Philadelphia had a deal with Quinnipiac four years ago. Their polling is consistently slanted more in the direction of Democrats and against Republicans than just about any other polling firm. I doubt the paper made the deal because of that (the fact that it's associated with a PA university probably had something to do with it), but nonetheless, the paper's readers probably didn't get the most accurate picture of the race (including that poll that showed Hillary up 11 in PA ... I believe that was one from Quinnipiac).

I've seen media outlets that fit into the same category in terms of market size do that a number of times. There could be three polls that show a state a dead heat and one that shows their preferred candidate (in other words, the Democrat) up by a a half dozen points. They'll ignore the three dead heat polls and highlight the one that paints a more rosy picture.

You, yourself, posted an article on Gallup showing Trump's approval rating slipping to 43 percent when the other 12 polls listed on Real Clear Politics all showed him with higher ratings than that. If one were to only look at the Gallup poll results and not know about the other 12 polls, they may easily get an inaccurate impression about the state of Trump's approval or the general election race.

[jserraglio]

And you yourself dismissed Trump's 49% high point of approval cited in that very same Gallup national poll as a statistically insignificant "outlier", given his consistent approval ratings in the lower half of the 40s. Of course, it was no outlier at all but the "bump" Presidents always get at the outset of a crisis, thereby confirming the Gallup poll's integrity.

But the point is, and I think we might actually agree on it, none of the national polls (neither yours nor mine) matter that much given the need to win in the Electoral College.

Now if I were to favor a Trump second term, I emphatically would NOT want the state of Texas to come into play. I would not want even to contemplate defending Texas.

That, in my view, was the watchword implicit in the Dallas Morning News piece you speculatively cast doubt upon: To declare: "generally speaking, his fears are not unfounded" is surely to imply that this specific article in a conservative-leaning paper has little of any significance to tell us.

Another thing. What the polls were showing at this point in 2016 (a big deficit that Trump later overcame) might be misleading in 2020. Trump is the incumbent this time around, a sitting President whose record and conduct in office are at issue, yet that has him trailing in Penn, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Florida.

Now certainly that may change, but not even Trump's own pollsters nor the RNC's internal polls are painting a significantly rosier picture of Trump's fortunes at this point. Are we to believe they too are cherry picking their data?

If Trump loses Texas, stick a fork in him. Ain't no way he's gonna win this election.

Ronald Reagan, though, might have this bit of advice for retaining Texas were he on the scene today: Mr. TRUMP, tear down YOUR Wall!

[Barry]

I agree that if Trump were to lose Texas, he'd have no shot.

The extent to which Texas will be more competitive in coming years has been written about a lot. I know it's not good for the GOP.

There is a lot of shifting around in the country. Some of it works for the GOP and against the Democrats. Some of the people who are making Texas more competitive (not to mention locking up the West Coast for the Dems) moved there from Rust-Belt states and PA, which has made those states less safe for the Democrats (Trump's PA win was the first for a Republican since 1988). And there is the immigration situation, which is obviously more pronounced in the Southwest than other parts of the country.

[jserraglio]

I will just say that I am shocked that a conservative paper in a conservative city in a conservative state is sounding such an alarm as the DMN did today.

But then again I am almost as shocked by the erosion of support for Trump among Independents here in Ohio since the covid crisis began.

As of now, I still think Trump will carry Ohio, Florida and Texas. But they are not as locked up for the GOP as they were six months ago.

Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn will be more problematic for him. I think they will decide the outcome one way or the other.

I am NOT in favor of abolishing the Electoral College.

[barney]

It's astounding how much polls drive the political process, certainly in Australia (where if America sneezes we catch cold). They've been way of the mark many a time in recent years, certainly the big published ones. Labor, who lost the unlosable election last year, apparently had a hint in their private polling that things weren't as rosy as the big public polls were showing, but they were still shocked. One thing is certain: no party can afford to go to the people with policies based merely on what they think is right or best for the nation. You've got to be much more sophisticated than that.
And of course the 2016 polling is a striking case. As the politicians like to say, and this time they are right, there is only one poll that really matters, and that's on the first Tuesday in November.

[Barry]

I agree that there is to much focus on polls, but I don't see it stopping any time soon.

It can be maddening if you pay too much attention to them. You'll find trends to both cheer you up and depress you, depending on your side, almost every day. On my side, a recent extensive poll from Harvard's Kennedy School shows Biden's ratings being almost shockingly bad among people under 30. Trump doesn't really do better, but he wouldn't expect to. That's a demographic that should be pro-Democratic. But a lot of them are pro the Bernie wing of the party and not so much someone like Biden (and the accusations against him probably don't help with that group).

At some point, as I did four years ago, I'll get sick of it and stop looking at the polls for a while; maybe even election news altogether (to the extent that someone who works at a newspaper can avoid it). It turned out most of it was a waste of time in the last election anyway. Most of the analysts were clueless.

In fact, it's my totally non-partisan position that we are killing ourselves as a country with too much advance analysis. There are numerous people telling you what's going to happen or be said on both sides before it happens (the huge number of polls are part of that). I often wish we could go back to the pre-Internet and 24-Hour-News-Network days when they mainly waited for things to happen then reported on them. It wasn't the end of the world to read about it the next day.

[jserraglio]

I agree that there is to much focus on polls, but I don't see it stopping any time soon.

Our species is homo ludens.

Of course, humans heed predictive instruments like political polls way too much.

So too lucre, sports and the weather. Not to mention, SEX.

Disputing about politics is fun. Predicting election outcomes is stimulating. So banish the Puritan, grab a bracket and play!

[barney]

In fact, it's my totally non-partisan position that we are killing ourselves as a country with too much advance analysis. There are numerous people telling you what's going to happen or be said on both sides before it happens (the huge number of polls are part of that). I often wish we could go back to the pre-Internet and 24-Hour-News-Network days when they mainly waited for things to happen then reported on them. It wasn't the end of the world to read about it the next day.

Ah Barry, you're singing my song. There's so much media going 24 hours a day, and it all has to be filled.
I've only got a Twitter account because my newspaper ordered me to get one when I went to Rome in 2010 to cover the canonisation of an Australian. They wanted more frequent updates. I barely use it - only to promote my articles when requested. And I resent FB, so I barely use that either. That said, I spend hours a day, especially in lockdown, trawling the newspapers on internet. Yet I recognise that social media is important. We found out about the death of Osama bin Laden, for example, because a couple of sharp Twitter users put together disparate tweets.

[barney]

Of course, humans heed predictive instruments like political polls way too much.

So too lucre, sports and the weather. Not to mention, SEX.

Disputing about politics is fun. Predicting election outcomes is stimulating. So banish the Puritan, grab a bracket and play!

What is a bracket in this context? To me it is something you screw to the wall to hang shelves on.
It may be fun, but this forum has shown - and I am as guilty as anyone - that it can also get heated. But you've started me on a real obsession of mine, which I have editorialised about more than once over the years: Weather forecasts. How can they be so inaccurate so regularly? The most scientific thing you can do - empirical evidence - is to stick your head out the window and have a look.

[jserraglio]

Wikipedia A bracket or tournament bracket is a tree diagram that represents the series of games played during a knockout tournament. Different knockout tournament formats have different brackets; the simplest and most common is that of the single-elimination tournament.

Half the fun comes from the "heat", in my view. Doesn't bother me to be attacked, I welcome personal attacks too, just so long as I am not being lectured at in a scolding tone.

[barney]

Wikipedia A bracket or tournament bracket is a tree diagram that represents the series of games played during a knockout tournament. Different knockout tournament formats have different brackets; the simplest and most common is that of the single-elimination tournament.

Half the fun comes from the "heat", in my view. Doesn't bother me to be attacked, I welcome personal attacks too, just so long as I am not being lectured at in a scolding tone.

Well, in that case, I fart in your general direction. Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries..."
(In case you are not a Monty Python fan, that was the French soldier to King Arthur in The Holy Grail.)
Feel warmer now?

[jserraglio]

I once made the mistake of showing Monty Python and the Holy Grail to a Film Studies class made up of 17-year-olds.

"Well, whatja think? Wasn't that funny?" I asked, stepping in it.

"Mr Serraglio, that would've been funny to us in the 5th grade," they answered.

Out of the mouth of babes and sucklings thou hast perfected ... blame.

[barney]

I once made the mistake of showing Monty Python and the Holy Grail to a Film Studies class made up of 17-year-olds.

"Well, whatja think? Wasn't that funny?" I asked, stepping in it.

"Mr Serraglio, that would've been funny to us in the 5th grade," they answered.

Out of the mouth of babes and sucklings thou hast perfected ... blame.

Well, the students would have been way too cool for me.

[Belle]

Wikipedia A bracket or tournament bracket is a tree diagram that represents the series of games played during a knockout tournament. Different knockout tournament formats have different brackets; the simplest and most common is that of the single-elimination tournament.

Half the fun comes from the "heat", in my view. Doesn't bother me to be attacked, I welcome personal attacks too, just so long as I am not being lectured at in a scolding tone.

You're obviously backing the wrong team; lecturing and hectoring are the tools of trade of the modern Left. Watch out or you'll lose your reputation, be 'deplatformed' and thereafter your job if you dare to disagree. Expulsion from the tribe is the retribution for dissent from the ideology and party line. No, we'll have no individuality here thanks. "How dare you"; "shame on you"!!

Dave Rubin recently said he 'came out' as gay in 2001 and nobody made a comment, but when he 'came out' and said he had abandoned the Left he was ostracized by whole groups of people, including those who had been at his wedding. Ah, but that's the 'caring' demographic for you.

The Right (formerly 'the establishment') had its own way of dealing with non-conformity, especially in business and society. The difference between this cohort and the Left is that they never put hand on heart as 'compassionate' and 'caring'. They never wear their hearts on their sleeves, particularly as a badge of distinction!!

Nuts to hypocrisy.

[jserraglio]

...they never put hand on heart as 'compassionate' and 'caring'. They never wear their hearts on their sleeves ...

Maybe they can't find their it's not on the right.

[barney]

Wikipedia A bracket or tournament bracket is a tree diagram that represents the series of games played during a knockout tournament. Different knockout tournament formats have different brackets; the simplest and most common is that of the single-elimination tournament.

Half the fun comes from the "heat", in my view. Doesn't bother me to be attacked, I welcome personal attacks too, just so long as I am not being lectured at in a scolding tone.

You're obviously backing the wrong team; lecturing and hectoring are the tools of trade of the modern Left. Watch out or you'll lose your reputation, be 'deplatformed' and thereafter your job if you dare to disagree. Expulsion from the tribe is the retribution for dissent from the ideology and party line. No, we'll have no individuality here thanks. "How dare you"; "shame on you"!!

Dave Rubin recently said he 'came out' as gay in 2001 and nobody made a comment, but when he 'came out' and said he had abandoned the Left he was ostracized by whole groups of people, including those who had been at his wedding. Ah, but that's the 'caring' demographic for you.

The Right (formerly 'the establishment') had its own way of dealing with non-conformity, especially in business and society. The difference between this cohort and the Left is that they never put hand on heart as 'compassionate' and 'caring'. They never wear their hearts on their sleeves, particularly as a badge of distinction!!

Nuts to hypocrisy.

Indeed, Belle. Ayn Rand, the epitome of the outlook you laud, was no hypocrite. Just a horrendous human being. Comes so naturally to the Right, usually because they are the ones with something to lose.