Wow What A Surprise!

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JackC
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Wow What A Surprise!

Post by JackC » Fri Apr 23, 2010 10:45 am

Gee, Obama told me that it was necessary to pass health care reform in order to get a handle on rapidly rising health care costs. Did he lie to me?? :lol:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/04/ ... ?tag=stack

President Obama's health care overhaul law will increase the nation's health care tab instead of bringing costs down, government economic forecasters concluded Thursday in a sobering assessment of the sweeping legislation.

A report by economic experts at the Health and Human Services Department (HHS) said the health care remake will achieve Obama's aim of expanding health insurance - adding 34 million Americans to the coverage rolls.

But the analysis also found that the law falls short of the president's twin goal of controlling runaway costs, raising projected spending by about 1 percent over 10 years. That increase could get bigger, however, since the report also warned that Medicare cuts in the law may be unrealistic and unsustainable, forcing lawmakers to roll them back.
The mixed verdict for Obama's signature issue is the first comprehensive look by neutral experts.

John F
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Re: Wow What A Surprise!

Post by John F » Sat Apr 24, 2010 1:24 am

What will happen, will happen, and nobody can say for sure just what that will be, no matter how certain they may sound. Give it a rest. The time for duelling forecasts is over, health care reform is law, and now we'll see how it turns out in the real world.
John Francis

HoustonDavid
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Re: Wow What A Surprise!

Post by HoustonDavid » Sat Apr 24, 2010 11:29 am

And 34 million Americans can say "thank you" - as will the emergency rooms of most hospitals.
One percent seems like a small price to pay when you consider no new taxes were required. Even
if we wind up paying more in taxes, it has become necessary to do so in order to reduce the
federal deficit, and we must eventually face and recognize that elephant in the room
"May You be born in interesting (maybe confusing?) times" - Chinese Proverb (or Curse)

DavidRoss
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Re: Wow What A Surprise!

Post by DavidRoss » Sat Apr 24, 2010 12:19 pm

HoustonDavid wrote:And 34 million Americans can say "thank you" - as will the emergency rooms of most hospitals.
One percent seems like a small price to pay when you consider no new taxes were required. Even
if we wind up paying more in taxes, it has become necessary to do so in order to reduce the
federal deficit, and we must eventually face and recognize that elephant in the room
This evaluation is way premature, based on the Dems' hyperbolic sales pitch, and may have no more basis in reality than the tooth fairy.

Such claims have been discussed here time and again on threads with links to substantive analysis debunking them. See, for instance:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/03/19/9 ... um=twitter

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=10121681

http://www.newsweek.com/id/234953?from= ... Stories%29

.............

Per the OP, the report mentioned in the CBS article JackC linked is not an independent analysis, but one prepared by Obama's own team at the Department of Health and Human Services. As such, its conclusions should be taken with a huge dose of salt. In January the non-partisan Commonweal Fund analyzed the provisions of the House and Senate bills on which the final plan passed was based, here: http://www.commonwealthfund.org/Content ... spx?page=1

Here is an April 5 Commonwealth Fund report on "Health Opinion Leaders" preliminary assessment of the legislation:
Report Overview wrote:Nearly nine of 10 leaders in health care and health care policy believe the comprehensive health reform legislation passed by Congress and signed into law by President Obama will successfully expand access to affordable health insurance coverage, the latest Commonwealth Fund/Modern Healthcare Health Care Opinion Leaders Survey finds. Virtually all of the key features of the health reform law—including income-related subsidies, new insurance market rules, and innovative payment methods—are supported by an overwhelming majority of opinion leaders. Looking toward implementation, respondents identified the nation’s supply of primary care providers, states’ capacity to implement reform, and enforcement of the individual mandate as areas of potential concern. Longer term, opinion leaders believe that improved affordability provisions for low- and moderate-income families, prevention and control of chronic disease, and stronger cost controls are the most important issues to be readdressed in the next two to three years.
We won't really know how this will all play out until after 2018, when all the provisions and costs of the plan should be in effect. Here is a Commonwealth Fund report on the timeline for that: http://www.commonwealthfund.org/Content ... ation.aspx
"Most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives." ~Leo Tolstoy

"It is the highest form of self-respect to admit our errors and mistakes and make amends for them. To make a mistake is only an error in judgment, but to adhere to it when it is discovered shows infirmity of character." ~Dale Turner

"Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either." ~Albert Einstein
"Truth is incontrovertible; malice may attack it and ignorance may deride it; but, in the end, there it is." ~Winston Churchill

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HoustonDavid
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Re: Wow What A Surprise!

Post by HoustonDavid » Sat Apr 24, 2010 12:33 pm

DavidRoss wrote:This evaluation is way premature, based on the Dems' hyperbolic sales pitch, and may have no more basis in reality than the tooth fairy.
Using your own logic, David, neither do the opinions of any of your sources. On one small thing
we all seem to agree: we must wait to determine the overall impact of the health care reform
legislation. And we do have 18 years to make the corrections necessary to improve the bill and
correct the faults. I see no reason to throw the baby out with the bath water and start over until
we "get it right" - at least according to those who feel it was a mistake to pass the legislation.
"May You be born in interesting (maybe confusing?) times" - Chinese Proverb (or Curse)

DavidRoss
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Re: Wow What A Surprise!

Post by DavidRoss » Sat Apr 24, 2010 12:36 pm

HoustonDavid wrote:
DavidRoss wrote:This evaluation is way premature, based on the Dems' hyperbolic sales pitch, and may have no more basis in reality than the tooth fairy.
Using your own logic, David, neither do the opinions of any of your sources. On one small thing
we all seem to agree: we must wait to determine the overall impact of the health care reform
legislation. And we do have 18 years to make the corrections necessary to improve the bill and
correct the faults. I see no reason to throw the baby out with the bath water and start over until
we "get it right" - at least according to those who feel it was a mistake to pass the legislation.
No, the articles I cited are all sufficiently responsible to distinguish between fact and judgment, as am I.
"Most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives." ~Leo Tolstoy

"It is the highest form of self-respect to admit our errors and mistakes and make amends for them. To make a mistake is only an error in judgment, but to adhere to it when it is discovered shows infirmity of character." ~Dale Turner

"Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either." ~Albert Einstein
"Truth is incontrovertible; malice may attack it and ignorance may deride it; but, in the end, there it is." ~Winston Churchill

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HoustonDavid
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Re: Wow What A Surprise!

Post by HoustonDavid » Sat Apr 24, 2010 1:11 pm

Ah, so the law according to David (Ross) is: we must accept his sources (and him) as "sufficiently
responsible to distinguish between fact and judgment" and the rest of us are just "opinionated"?
We should all be so blessed.

How is it opinionated to "claim" that 34 million Americans will now receive health care insurance and
the nation's emergency rooms will no longer be overburdened with citizens seeking health care
without insurance?
"May You be born in interesting (maybe confusing?) times" - Chinese Proverb (or Curse)

RebLem
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Re: Wow What A Surprise!

Post by RebLem » Sat Apr 24, 2010 1:18 pm

John Francis and other people of good will should keep something in mind. It is the purpose of the antis in this debate to poison the atmosphere so that whatever the facts turn out to be, if they are favorable to the program, will not matter. No matter how big the, uhh, untruth, it becomes true by repetition. In Brave New World, Aldous Huxley postulated a world in which people were artificially bred in laboratories and taught what the State wanted them to believe through "sleep teaching" certain maxims in utero which were repeated often. The operating principle was "2175 [I'm not sure I have the number right] repetitions equals a Truth."

"Eugene McCarthy won the New Hampshire primary in 1968 against Lyndon Johnson," has become a Truth by Repetition, even though he won only 40% of the votes, and Johnson won 60%. McCarthy did win far more votes than a challenger to an incumbent president of his own party usually gets in a presidential primary, and so his real achievement was impressive. But he didn't win the primary. But, of course, the press won it for him by repeating the lie and creating a Truth.

We see this principle and some of its corollaries in operation all the time. The abortion debate is a particularly tawdry example. The problem there is you have two more or less equally matched propaganda machines out there repeating their slogans as often as they can. You tune in a "discussion" of these issues and generally all you hear is people from each side constantly repeating their respective mantras, which then get translated into popular bumper stickers. "Get your laws off my body." "A fetus doesn't have a 'choice.'" Everyone understands that every time you make some progress toward your required 2175 repetitions, you have to subtract the repetitions of the opposition's slogans, so neither side ever makes much headway, because they are pretty much evenly matched. Oh, there are certain cloistered environments where fervent believers have achieved the 2175 threshhold--the National Organization for Women on one side and the Catholic Church on the other just as two examples, but the people who get cut out of the debate are the folks in the middle, who get pelted with rhetorical rotten tomatoes by both sides.

Another thing that happens is that one side seeks a rhetorical edge of the other. "The so called Pro-Choice movement should really be called the Pro Abortion movement," one side will proclaim. "The Right to Lifers are really just control freaks who want to re-subjugate women and control every aspect of their lives," the other will exclaim. At this, reasonable people in the middle just throw up their hands. But they mostly keep their mouths shut, too, because few of them are willing to accept the slings and arrows of both sides.

And so it is with the health care debate. The Republicants are unwilling to let it ride and let a couple years experience with the system lead people in one direction or another. They want to create their own Truths by Repetition, and do nothing by attack, attack, attack, in a desperate effort to get 2175 repetitions over the opposition. And yes, Democrats have the temerity to defend themselves. Oh, how awful, how base!
Don't drink and drive. You might spill it.--J. Eugene Baker, aka my late father
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"Racism is America's Original Sin."--Francis Cardinal George, former Roman Catholic Archbishop of Chicago.

DavidRoss
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Re: Wow What A Surprise!

Post by DavidRoss » Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:26 pm

HoustonDavid wrote:Ah, so the law according to David (Ross) is: we must accept his sources (and him) as "sufficiently
responsible to distinguish between fact and judgment" and the rest of us are just "opinionated"?
We should all be so blessed.

How is it opinionated to "claim" that 34 million Americans will now receive health care insurance and
the nation's emergency rooms will no longer be overburdened with citizens seeking health care
without insurance?
Your claim is not a fact, but your guess about what may happen in the future, based on your credulousness regarding the claims made by the Democrats who rammed this bill into law. Not only is it opinion, not fact, but it is not grounded in a realistic assessment of the probable outcome. It appears based on prejudice and wishful thinking instead of rational analysis of factual information. Instead of supporting your claim with additional information, and analyzing the information I presented showing how its conclusions may be mistaken, you make a personal attack on me with nasty and unsupported insinuations about my character.

If you actually made an effort to understand what I'm offering, instead of dismissing it (and insulting me) according to your prejudices, you would have read the information I offered, would have seen that it is far from one-sided, and would have learned something. Instead, it appears that you would rather be snide and try to pick a fight...again. This is the fourth or fifth thread on which you've done this lately.

Despite your efforts to stir up enmity in one thread after another by your misbegotten personal attacks on me, I have remained civil in my responses to you. Yet you continue to behave like a petulant, vengeful schoolchild. Like a handful of other extremely opinionated folks who participate here on occasion, you have proven unable to engage in rational discussion of issues by offering information and analysis relevant to the topic. You substitute personal attacks for civil discourse. I've had enough.
"Most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives." ~Leo Tolstoy

"It is the highest form of self-respect to admit our errors and mistakes and make amends for them. To make a mistake is only an error in judgment, but to adhere to it when it is discovered shows infirmity of character." ~Dale Turner

"Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either." ~Albert Einstein
"Truth is incontrovertible; malice may attack it and ignorance may deride it; but, in the end, there it is." ~Winston Churchill

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HoustonDavid
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Re: Wow What A Surprise!

Post by HoustonDavid » Sat Apr 24, 2010 10:46 pm

As usual David, you praise me when I agree with you, and tar and feather me when we disagree.
At least you didn't use your favorite word to describe me: "bigot". You have a bad habit of always
being right, which in my experience is not possible, but keep on tryin'. Somewhere out there is a
petard with your name on it, waiting to be hoisted. There will be a gallery of some good folks here
who will be cheering. BTW, I've had enough too. Welcome to my foes list. It's a rather short one,
but Brendan and Saul will be glad to see you on there.
"May You be born in interesting (maybe confusing?) times" - Chinese Proverb (or Curse)

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