More primary results

[John F]

March 5:

Kansas
Republicans:
Ted Cruz 48.2%
Donald Trump 23.3%
Marco Rubio 16.7%
John Kasich 10.7%

Democrats:
Bernie Sanders 67.7%
Hillary Clinton 32.3%


Kentucky
Republicans:
Donald Trump 35.8%
Ted Cruz 31.4%
Marco Rubio 16.5%
John Kasich 14.5%

Democrats:
primary on May 17, 2016


Louisiana
Republicans:
Donald Trump 41.6%
Ted Cruz 38.0%
Marco Rubio 11.1%
John Kasich 6.3%

Democrats:
Hillary Clinton 70.5%
Bernie Sanders 23.5%


Maine
Republicans:
Ted Cruz 45.9%
Donald Trump 32.6%
John Kasich 12.2%
Marco Rubio 8.0%

Democrats:
primary on March 6, 2016


Nebraska
Republicans:
primary on May 10, 2016

Democrats:
Bernie Sanders 55.9%
Hillary Clinton 44.1%

Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 378
Ted Cruz 295
Marco Rubio 123
John Kasich 34
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 1,121 (659 elected, 458 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 479 (455 elected, 22 superdelegates)
uncommitted superdelegates 226
needed for nomination: 2,383

[rwetmore]

The pattern I'm seeing this time around is that the undecideds are not breaking for Trump, and he's coming in a little below his RCP polling averages. It's also quite clear that the undecideds this time broke for Cruz since he got way above what he was polling at, and it also appears some Rubio supporters ditched him for Cruz. The winner tonight is clearly Cruz and not Trump. Frankly, if I were Trump, I'd be at least somewhat concerned about this, but he seems as confident as ever that Cruz can't beat him:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mShTUVnftS4

Given the remaining states, perhaps he's right, but still the pattern is not toward Trump gaining or even keeping his momentum from Super Tuesday.

[lennygoran]

Given the remaining states, perhaps he's right, but still the pattern is not toward Trump gaining or even keeping his momentum from Super Tuesday.

They gotta keep hammering away at those so called auditing tax returns! Regards, Len

[John F]

The pattern I'm seeing this time around is that the undecideds are not breaking for Trump

That's not what I'm hearing in analyses of the Republican results so far, on PBS for example. In fact, it's the opposite. They say Trump has done worst in the caucuses whose voting is restricted to registered Republicans. His wins have been in states with open Republican primaries, that is, where anybody can vote in the Republican primary whether he/she is a Republican, a Democrat, a Libertarian, or nothing at all. One analyst speculated that a significant part of Trump's votes may be coming from blue-collar Democrats who like him better than the candidates in their own primaries.

Of course I've no way of knowing whether this is right, but it makes sense to me. Only true Republicans, the religious Right, and right-wing independents would find the hard-line conservatism of José Cruz to their liking. Trump's scatter-shot blather, when it's about policies and programs, is a mix of Republican and Democrat positions - support for Medicare, aspects of the Affordable Care Act, Planned Parenthood. After all, he's from New York. One commentator on "Washington Week" said:

What you see Trump doing is giving all of the answers to every policy question. It's not that he doesn't answer. He gives simultaneously contradictory answers. So he says he’s going to commit war crimes and torture people, and then he comes out the next day and says, of course, we’re going to follow the law. And people hear whatever they want to hear in that.

The Republican primaries, and probably the general election, look like being almost entirely about personalities. Policies and programs and proposals won't matter, it will be just a popularity contest: who the voters like better, who they trust more, and may the most effective demagogue win.

This is mindless, lowest common denominator politics, what the framers of the Constitution feared when they prevented election by popular vote to the presidency and the Senate and allowed us to vote only for the "lower" House of Representatives. And the grown-ups in the room are unable to bring the children to order. As Schiller said, "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."

[rwetmore]

What you see Trump doing is giving all of the answers to every policy question. It's not that he doesn't answer. He gives simultaneously contradictory answers. So he says he’s going to commit war crimes and torture people, and then he comes out the next day and says, of course, we’re going to follow the law. And people hear whatever they want to hear in that.

The Republican primaries, and probably the general election, look like being almost entirely about personalities. Policies and programs and proposals won't matter, it will be just a popularity contest: who the voters like better, who they trust more, and may the most effective demagogue win.

The reason policies and programs don't matter as much as they should to voters is because history tells them they can't believe what anyone running, especially if they are establishment, says they support or will do. Not the least of which is Obama's 2008 platform in which he ended up not only not doing what he said would, but the opposite.

The origin of most of all of this BTW is Obama, because he and his presidency was and is a fraud (though still, surprisingly and disturbingly, a successful fraud given his approval numbers). This is the underlying source of not only the rise of Trump, but also the appearance to the average voter that the system is broken and dysfunctional. Broken beyond repair even from within the normal or traditional bounds of the political system.

This is why Trump's lack of specifics and inconsistencies on positions and policies aren't hurting him as much as they should to a lot of voters. They are, I think, coming to the conclusion that 1) at least he isn't beholden to any donors or special interests, and 2) his core positions are pro-American ones that voters perceive as having been long neglected or deliberately circumvented against their interests.

[rwetmore]

But I maintain that the results from last night suggest momentum shifting away from Trump and towards Cruz. Now, whether that will mean Trump will falter in the end, I don't know. Cruz may still come up short. Clearly though, support for Rubio is fading.

[John F]

The reason policies and programs don't matter as much as they should to voters is because history tells them they can't believe what anyone running, especially if they are establishment, says they support or will do. Not the least of which is Obama's 2008 platform in which he ended up not only not doing what he said would, but the opposite.

That is simply not true - typical Republican BS. The 2008 platform is here if anyone wants to know what it really was:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/presi ... index.html

President Obama and his administration kept many of its promises, as far as a hostile House of Representatives after 2010 allowed, which wasn't very far. Whether or not you like the Affordable Care Act, it's one of the programs Obama promised and the people elected him to do, and he did it. Some of the 2008 promises were not kept, such as closing the Guantanomo Bay terrorist detention facility, but that was the doing of Congress.

he and his presidency was and is a fraud (though still, surprisingly and disturbingly, a successful fraud given his approval numbers).

To the contrary, the approval numbers for President Obama - much higher than those for the Republican-controlled Congress, by the way - reflect the public's response to what he has actually done and, nearly as important, what he has not done. The presidency that really was a fraud is that of George W. Bush, who started the needless war in Iraq based on lies about alleged weapons of mass destruction, and by destroying its government and military, sowed the seeds and provided fertile ground for the growth of what is now ISIS or the Islamic State.

This thread isn't about the Obama or the Bush presidency, but about the next one. But since you're trotting out all the old falsehoods about the last 7 years, born of knee-jerk opposition to everything the President says and does (the current Supreme Court situation topping it all), they need to be debunked yet again.

Getting back to this thread's true subject:

I maintain that the results from last night suggest momentum shifting away from Trump and towards Cruz.

Wait and see what happens when the big states with winner-take-all primaries come along, beginning March 15. On that date, Rubio's and Kasich's home states will hold primaries, and if they can't even win their home states as now seems more than possible, one or both of them may drop out, leaving the Republicans with Trump vs. Cruz. Then we'll start to see if Cruz has a chance. The polls in those states, if you believe them, say he doesn't.

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-t ... hio-2016-3

[rwetmore]

This thread isn't about the Obama or the Bush presidency, but about the next one. But since you're trotting out all the old falsehoods about the last 7 years, born of knee-jerk opposition to everything the President says and does (the current Supreme Court situation topping it all), they need to be debunked yet again.

Except you haven't actually debunked them and they're not falsehoods. Moreover, the rise of Trump would never have happened without Obama's essentially fraudulent presidency. Now, Obama's not the sole reason -- there are others including W. Bush's decision to go into Iraq, but without Obama there's definitely no Trump. In fact, there is probably not even a Ted Cruz either.

If Trump does win the nomination and ultimately the presidency, which he may, I will lay all of the reasoning out in more detail as to why. Do I dare say I think I may know what's going on better than anyone?

[rwetmore]

he and his presidency was and is a fraud (though still, surprisingly and disturbingly, a successful fraud given his approval numbers).

To the contrary, the approval numbers for President Obama - much higher than those for the Republican-controlled Congress,

Exactly my point.

by the way - reflect the public's response to what he has actually done and, nearly as important, what he has not done.

Or to the degree he has successfully conned them into thinking the bad is not because of him and his implemented policies.

[rwetmore]

Wait and see what happens when the big states with winner-take-all primaries come along, beginning March 15. On that date, Rubio's and Kasich's home states will hold primaries, and if they can't even win their home states as now seems more than possible, one or both of them may drop out, leaving the Republicans with Trump vs. Cruz. Then we'll start to see if Cruz has a chance. The polls in those states, if you believe them, say he doesn't.

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-t ... hio-2016-3

Well, I'm not yet convinced Trump is going to win the nomination, and even if he does -- that he will have a good chance to win the presidency in November. IMO, he's made a lot of big mistakes so far and seems oblivious to most of them and the negative impact they've had on the results thus far. He's coming across as a bit too cocky about his prospects of winning, frankly. I don't think that's a winning strategy for the remainder of the primary or the general election, because I don't think it will entice more to break his way. But we'll see. I could be wrong.

[John F]

Kansas
Republican:
Ted Cruz 48.2%
Donald J. Trump 23.3%
Marco Rubio 16.7%
John Kasich 10.7%
Other 1.2%

Democrat:
Bernie Sanders 67.7%
Hillary Clinton 32.3%


Kentucky
Republican:
Donald J. Trump 35.9%
Ted Cruz 31.6%
Marco Rubio 16.4%
John Kasich 14.4%
Other 1.7%

Democrat:
primary on May 17


Louisiana
Republican:
Donald J. Trump 41.4%
Ted Cruz 37.8%
Marco Rubio 11.2%
John Kasich 6.4%
Other 3.1%

Democrat:
Hillary Clinton 71.1%
Bernie Sanders 23.2%
Other 5.7%


Maine
Republican:
Ted Cruz 45.9%
Donald J. Trump 32.6%
John Kasich 12.2%
Marco Rubio 8.0%
Other 1.3%

Democrat:
Bernie Sanders 64.3%
Hillary Clinton 35.5%
Other 0.2%

Nebraska
Republican:
primary on May 10

Democrat:
Bernie Sanders 57.1%
Hillary Clinton 42.9%

Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 384
Ted Cruz 300
Marco Rubio 151
John Kasich 37
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 1,129 (671 elected, 458 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 498 (476 elected, 22 superdelegates)
uncommitted superdelegates 226
needed for nomination: 2,383

[John F]

Yet another angle:

In Louisiana, where Mr. Trump amassed a lead of more than 20 percentage points among those who cast votes before Saturday, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas effectively tied him among voters who cast their ballots on Saturday. “Trump has to worry about the consistent late-voter rejection of his candidacy,” said Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker and Republican presidential candidate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/07/us/po ... trump.html

But this raises another problem for Republicans - if not Trump, then who?

Much of Mr. Cruz’s late-breaking support on Saturday seemed to come at the expense of Mr. Rubio, not Mr. Trump. And the Cruz campaign’s message of ideological purity and religious faith is a less natural fit for many of the delegate-rich Midwestern and coastal states that remain on the map.

Which raises another possibility. None of the candidates may have enough delegates to win nomination on the first ballot at the convention in Cleveland. According to Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist, "The most likely scenarios remain that Trump gets enough before Cleveland, or nobody does. The latter moved a little closer to realistic Saturday.” That would mean a brokered convention.

And yet another factor:

The Stop Trump forces are beginning to pour money into television ads, with a particular focus on the big states voting on March 15. Four different groups have reserved at least $10 million in airtime in Florida so far, according to trackers of media spending. That number is expected to grow, but television stations in Florida are already awash in such ads.

Two from the American Future Fund, which has spent $2 million so far in Florida and Illinois, show decorated veterans assailing Mr. Trump as a poseur on military matters. Michael Waltz, a retired Special Forces colonel, blisteringly calls Mr. Trump a draft dodger and, effectively, a coward. “Donald Trump hasn’t served this country a day in his life,” he says. “Don’t let Trump fool you.” And a former prisoner of war in Vietnam, Tom Hanton, bluntly questions Mr. Trump’s toughness: “Trump would not have survived the P.O.W. experience. He would have been probably the first one to fold.”

Separately, Club for Growth Action, an arm of the anti-tax group that was the first to run ads in Iowa against Mr. Trump, has placed $2 million in commercials attacking him in Illinois on top of $1 million in Florida. A third group, Our Principles PAC, which was created to defeat Mr. Trump, has reserved $3.5 million in Illinois and Florida and is also sending direct mail to voters’ homes in Florida. A group supporting Mr. Rubio, Conservative Solutions, is spending several million dollars in Florida as well.

The deluge of negative messages from a patchwork of groups — highlighting claims by angry customers of Mr. Trump’s defunct educational company and his history of shape-shifting positions — already appears to have hurt Mr. Trump’s cause.

All this give me a certain amount of satisfaction.

[rwetmore]

But this raises another problem for Republicans - if not Trump, then who?

Cruz. There's no one else.

Much of Mr. Cruz’s late-breaking support on Saturday seemed to come at the expense of Mr. Rubio, not Mr. Trump. And the Cruz campaign’s message of ideological purity and religious faith is a less natural fit for many of the delegate-rich Midwestern and coastal states that remain on the map.

Which raises another possibility. None of the candidates may have enough delegates to win nomination on the first ballot at the convention in Cleveland. According to Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist, "The most likely scenarios remain that Trump gets enough before Cleveland, or nobody does. The latter moved a little closer to realistic Saturday.” That would mean a brokered convention.

Yes, in which case Trump probably would not get the nomination.

And yet another factor:

The Stop Trump forces are beginning to pour money into television ads, with a particular focus on the big states voting on March 15. Four different groups have reserved at least $10 million in airtime in Florida so far, according to trackers of media spending. That number is expected to grow, but television stations in Florida are already awash in such ads.

Two from the American Future Fund, which has spent $2 million so far in Florida and Illinois, show decorated veterans assailing Mr. Trump as a poseur on military matters. Michael Waltz, a retired Special Forces colonel, blisteringly calls Mr. Trump a draft dodger and, effectively, a coward. “Donald Trump hasn’t served this country a day in his life,” he says. “Don’t let Trump fool you.” And a former prisoner of war in Vietnam, Tom Hanton, bluntly questions Mr. Trump’s toughness: “Trump would not have survived the P.O.W. experience. He would have been probably the first one to fold.”

Separately, Club for Growth Action, an arm of the anti-tax group that was the first to run ads in Iowa against Mr. Trump, has placed $2 million in commercials attacking him in Illinois on top of $1 million in Florida. A third group, Our Principles PAC, which was created to defeat Mr. Trump, has reserved $3.5 million in Illinois and Florida and is also sending direct mail to voters’ homes in Florida. A group supporting Mr. Rubio, Conservative Solutions, is spending several million dollars in Florida as well.

The deluge of negative messages from a patchwork of groups — highlighting claims by angry customers of Mr. Trump’s defunct educational company and his history of shape-shifting positions — already appears to have hurt Mr. Trump’s cause.

All this give me a certain amount of satisfaction.

But will they be successful? We don't know.

[karlhenning]

Yet another angle:

In Louisiana, where Mr. Trump amassed a lead of more than 20 percentage points among those who cast votes before Saturday, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas effectively tied him among voters who cast their ballots on Saturday. “Trump has to worry about the consistent late-voter rejection of his candidacy,” said Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker and Republican presidential candidate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/07/us/po ... trump.html

But this raises another problem for Republicans - if not Trump, then who?

Much of Mr. Cruz’s late-breaking support on Saturday seemed to come at the expense of Mr. Rubio, not Mr. Trump. And the Cruz campaign’s message of ideological purity and religious faith is a less natural fit for many of the delegate-rich Midwestern and coastal states that remain on the map.

Which raises another possibility. None of the candidates may have enough delegates to win nomination on the first ballot at the convention in Cleveland. According to Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist, "The most likely scenarios remain that Trump gets enough before Cleveland, or nobody does. The latter moved a little closer to realistic Saturday.” That would mean a brokered convention.

And yet another factor:

The Stop Trump forces are beginning to pour money into television ads, with a particular focus on the big states voting on March 15. Four different groups have reserved at least $10 million in airtime in Florida so far, according to trackers of media spending. That number is expected to grow, but television stations in Florida are already awash in such ads.

Two from the American Future Fund, which has spent $2 million so far in Florida and Illinois, show decorated veterans assailing Mr. Trump as a poseur on military matters. Michael Waltz, a retired Special Forces colonel, blisteringly calls Mr. Trump a draft dodger and, effectively, a coward. “Donald Trump hasn’t served this country a day in his life,” he says. “Don’t let Trump fool you.” And a former prisoner of war in Vietnam, Tom Hanton, bluntly questions Mr. Trump’s toughness: “Trump would not have survived the P.O.W. experience. He would have been probably the first one to fold.”

Separately, Club for Growth Action, an arm of the anti-tax group that was the first to run ads in Iowa against Mr. Trump, has placed $2 million in commercials attacking him in Illinois on top of $1 million in Florida. A third group, Our Principles PAC, which was created to defeat Mr. Trump, has reserved $3.5 million in Illinois and Florida and is also sending direct mail to voters’ homes in Florida. A group supporting Mr. Rubio, Conservative Solutions, is spending several million dollars in Florida as well.

The deluge of negative messages from a patchwork of groups — highlighting claims by angry customers of Mr. Trump’s defunct educational company and his history of shape-shifting positions — already appears to have hurt Mr. Trump’s cause.

All this give me a certain amount of satisfaction. :mrgreen:

At this point, El Tupé’s advantage may be those who balloted early—before benefiting from El Tupé’s anatomical assurances.

[John F]

In a brokered convention, one which has failed to select a nominee on the first ballot, the delegates' commitments are released and all bets are off. If any candidate is within a few dozen delegates of the majority, a few might be persuaded to switch; if not, it could be a prolonged process. The convention might turn to a Republican who hasn't been in the primaries, such as Paul Ryan and even his running mate Mitt Romney. Or to someone we haven't even thought of.

I remember listening on the radio to the Democratic convention in Chicago in 1952. I was 11 and had no idea of the meaning of it all, but I remember being excited because it was a real contest, and possibly because my parents were excited - Franklin & Marshall College where my father taught was an island of Democrats in Lancaster's sea of Republicans. The front runner was Senator Estes Kefauver of Tennessee, but the Governor of Illinois, Adlai Stevenson, gave an outstanding speech welcoming the delegates, and although he was not a declared candidate and didn't have a single delegate to his name, the Party bosses decided he was their man. After Kefauver failed to win on the first ballot, Stevenson was nominated on the third. But in the general election, Stevenson was up against the unbeatable Dwight D. Eisenhower, and it wasn't even close.

[rwetmore]

One analyst speculated that a significant part of Trump's votes may be coming from blue-collar Democrats who like him better than the candidates in their own primaries.

This is certainly supported by this here:

Mahoning Co. sees 1K Dems defect to GOP

http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/mar/03/m ... ct-to-gop/

[John F]

Puerto Rico
Republicans:
Rubio 73.8%
Trump 13.6%
Cruz 9%
Kasich 1.6%

Democrats:
primary on June 5

[rwetmore]

They've already called Mississippi for Trump (it's now only 8:52pm EST). Seems a bit premature.

[John F]

Hawaii
Republicans:
Trump 42.4%
Cruz 32.7%
Rubio 13.1%
Kasich 10.6%

Democrats:
primary on March 26


Idaho
Republicans:
Ted Cruz 45.4%
Donald Trump 28.1%
Marco Rubio 15.9%
John Kasich 7.4%

Democrats:
primary on March 22


Michigan
Republicans:
Donald Trump 36.5%
Ted Cruz 24.9%
John Kasich 24.3%
Marco Rubio 9.3%

Democrats:
Bernie Sanders 49.9%
Hillary Clinton 48.2%

Mississippi
Republicans:
Donald Trump 47.3%
Ted Cruz 36.3%
John Kasich 8.8%
Marco Rubio 5.1%

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 82.6%
Bernie Sanders 16.5%


Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 446
Ted Cruz 347
Marco Rubio 151
John Kasich 54
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 1,221 (763 elected, 458 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 571 (549 elected, 22 superdelegates)
uncommitted superdelegates 226
needed for nomination: 2,383

[rwetmore]

Very good night for Trump. 3 out of 4, and each of the three he won by 10 points or more.

[rwetmore]

However, the results still show that essentially no undecideds broke for Trump. They still seem to be mostly breaking for Cruz.

[John F]

Exit poll results from Tuesday's primary are here, for what they're worth:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-rep ... d=37493407

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-dem ... d=37493541

[John F]

Florida
Republicans:
Trump 45.8%
Rubio 27%
Cruz 17.1%
Kasich 6.8%

Democrats:
Clinton 64.5%
Sanders 33.3%


Illinois
Republicans:
Trump 38.9%
Cruz 30.5%
Kasich 19.6%
Rubio 8.5%

Democrats:
Clinton 50.3%
Sanders 48.8%


Missouri
Republicans (not final):
Trump 40.8%
Cruz 40.7%
Kasich 10.1%
Rubio: 6.1%

Democrats (not final):
Clinton 49.6%
Sanders 49.4%


North Carolina
Republicans:
Trump 40.3%
Cruz 36.8%
Kasich 12.6%
Rubio 7.7%

Democrats:
Clinton 54.6%
Sanders 40.8%


Ohio
Republicans:
Kasich 47.1%
Trump 35.9%
Cruz 13.2%
Rubio 2.3%

Democrats:
Clinton 56.5%
Sanders 42.7%


Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 621
Ted Cruz 395
Marco Rubio 168
John Kasich 138
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 1,561 (1,094 elected, 458 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 800 (774 elected, 26 superdelegates)
unpledged superdelegates 219
needed for nomination: 2,383

[jbuck919]

OK, can we start worrying about Congressional races now? In my CD, the incumbent Republican would probably win anyway, but now she's a shoe-in, because we have the classic case of a Green Party candidate (who got ten percent of the vote two years ago) splitting the vote on the Left. An egotistical fool like Ralph Nader in miniature. (We're just lucky that the Green Party candidate for President this time around has no name recognition or meaningful support base.)

[John F]

Shoo-in?

[rwetmore]

Trump barely squeaked out Missouri. That win may be significant, but I still say he's going to fall short of 1237. I predict he'll get somewhere between 1100-1200.

[John F]

Missouri
Republicans:
Trump 40.9%
Cruz 40.7%
Kasich 9.9%
Rubio 6.1%

Democrats:
Clinton 49.6%
Sanders 49.4%

Arizona
Republicans:
Trump 47.1%
Cruz 24.9%
Kasich 10.0%

Democrats:
Clinton 57.6%
Sanders 39.9%

Idaho
Republicans:
primary on March 8

Democrats:
Sanders 78.0%
Clinton 21.2%

Utah
Republicans:
Cruz 69.2%
Kasich 16.8%
Trump 14.0%

Democrats:
Sanders 79.3%
Clinton 20.3%


Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 738
Ted Cruz 463
Marco Rubio 166
John Kasich 143
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 1,690 (1,223 elected, 467 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 946 (920 elected, 26 superdelegates)
unpledged superdelegates 219
needed for nomination: 2,383

[John F]

Strange that Utah, one of the most conservative states in the Union, should have gone overwhelmingly to Bernie Sanders, the leftmost of the candidates in both parties. I suppose it could be the status of women among Mormons, that highly patriarchal sect, which only gave women a token role in the church in the 1970s. But I imagine the analysts will have a high old time figuring that one out.

Next: Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington State, Democrat caucuses on Sunday. Given the results in Utah and Idaho, I wouldn't be surprised if Sanders does well; Washington State is the big prize. Nothing for the Republicans until April, when they have a slew of big ones.

[Ricordanza]

Strange that Utah, one of the most conservative states in the Union, should have gone overwhelmingly to Bernie Sanders, the leftmost of the candidates in both parties.

I suppose he has a following among the 75 or so Democrats who live in Utah.

[John F]

77,344 voted in the Democratic primary, 61,333 of them for Sanders. But that's way less than half the votes in the Republican primary.

The NY Times has a great page for keeping up with the primaries:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016 ... sults.html

[karlhenning]

Yes, motivation in the GOP primaries is high.

On the Democratic side, not much enthusiasm for Clinton. For someone who is supposedly inevitable, she is a looooong time sealing the deal.

Cheers,
~k.

[lennygoran]

Yes, motivation in the GOP primaries is high.

Karl, maybe them attacking each other's wives will slow down the motivation but probably not. Regards, Len

[John F]

On the Democratic side, not much enthusiasm for Clinton. For someone who is supposedly inevitable, she is a looooong time sealing the deal.

Oh, I don't know about that. She already has 2/3 of the delegates she needs (including those superdelegates, of course), and has won 20 states to Sanders's 12, including all the big ones. In 2008, Barack Obama didn't get his majority until June 3. It's more than likely that she will clinch the nomination a good deal sooner than that. But after all, she's running against Bernie Sanders, while Obama was running against...Hillary Clinton.

To save a message slot, I'll add this here. In another thread I've mentioned that regardless of the vote count in the primaries, the actual delegates - to be selected later - may not be solid for the candidate they are nominally to vote for. Here's a story from the Wall Street Journal about shenanigans in Louisiana, which are very likely going on elsewhere too. The Trump campaign, whose staffing, organization, and experience are notoriously thin, is being completely outmaneuvered in the inside game, which if there's a brokered convention is likely to be decisive.


Ted Cruz Gains in Louisiana After Loss There to Donald Trump
By Reid J. Epstein
March 24, 2016

Donald Trump beat Sen. Ted Cruz earlier this month in Louisiana’s Republican presidential primary by 3.6 percentage points, but the Texan may wind up with as many as 10 more delegates from the state than the businessman. Mr. Cruz’s supporters also seized five of Louisiana’s six slots on the three powerful committees that will write the rules and platform at the Republican National Convention and mediate disputes over delegates’ eligibility this summer in Cleveland.

The little-noticed inside maneuvering that led to this outcome in Louisiana is another dramatic illustration of the inside game that could have an outsize influence on the bitter race for the GOP nomination. A similar process played out three weeks ago in Coweta County, Ga.

While Mr. Trump leads in winning primary and caucus elections, and has won more delegates, the Cruz campaign is proving superior at the arcane game of picking the people who will be the actual delegates to the convention, where they will help write the rules and ultimately choose the nominee. That means that if Mr. Trump fails to reach the delegate threshold to claim the GOP nomination on the convention’s first ballot, committees dominated by Cruz supporters could work to block him from winning enough delegates to claim the nomination on any subsequent ballots.

Kay Kellogg Katz, a Trump supporter who sought unsuccessfully to win a position on a key panel at the convention, summarized the Trump campaign’s predicament this way: “I do not know Mr. Trump, I do not know his staff people. Quite frankly, we don’t have much of a campaign in Louisiana. All we have is voters.”

In other states, Trump supporters have missed out on the early process of becoming convention delegates because they are relatively inexperienced in the party processes. But in Louisiana, Mr. Trump won broad support among elected officials despite a bare-bones campaign infrastructure. Still, he has lagged behind on delegate selection.

Stacking the convention and its committees with supporters is critical for Mr. Cruz, because a contested convention is his only viable path to the nomination. The Texan must win 85% of the remaining delegates to win outright, a highly unlikely scenario with many states awarding delegates proportionally.

The Trump campaign’s first problem is in the overall delegate count from Louisiana. Messrs. Trump and Cruz won 18 delegates apiece based on the Louisiana results in the primary on March 5. But the five delegates awarded to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio are now free agents because he ended his campaign, and Louisiana Republicans expect them to swing behind Mr. Cruz. Meanwhile, the state’s five unbound delegates—who are free to back the candidates of their choice—also are more likely to back Mr. Cruz than Mr. Trump, according to GOP officials in the state.
More on Election 2016

The second step in the process is for those delegates to decide who will represent Louisiana on the three important convention committees— rules, credentials and the party platform. To make those choices, most of Louisiana’s delegates gathered at a March 12 state convention to elect two members to each panel. No Trump backers won any of those slots. Five of the six committee members chosen back Mr. Cruz, and the sixth is uncommitted to a presidential candidate. Louisiana is the first state to name delegates to serve on the three committees.

Those panels would become critical in a contested convention, which would take place if no candidate wins a majority of delegates on the first ballot. The rules panel will determine which candidates are eligible to be nominated for president, the platform panel will write the party’s agenda, and the credentials panel will mediate disputes about which delegates can be seated. Such fights are already taking place in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Guam, and may happen as well elsewhere.

Ms. Katz, a former state legislator from Monroe, La., who then-Gov. Bobby Jindal appointed to a state tax commission, sought a position on the credentials committee. She lost a 22-5 vote to Kim Fralick, a Cruz supporter who has never before been involved in a major political campaign. Ms. Katz, who said she has attended every GOP convention since 1984, said the Cruz forces out-organized Mr. Trump’s campaign, whom she said showed no concern about helping their supporters win the committee slots.

Ms. Fralick, a veterinarian from the Baton Rouge suburb of Central, said she was asked by a Cruz official if she could serve on the panel, which entails arriving in Cleveland days before the convention begins. “They were looking for someone who could come up a week early,” Ms. Fralick said. “I might have been a default choice.”

Ed Brookover, the Trump official leading the campaign’s delegate team, said Thursday that he wasn’t aware that the Trump campaign had been shut out of Louisiana’s committee slots. He expressed optimism that “other spots where this is taking place, we now have programs and plans in place to make sure that Mr. Trump’s supporters are getting to county, district and state conventions.” Mr. Brookover added that “the good news is that when we let Mr. Trump’s supporters know about these things, they are enthusiastic and go running to them.”

The one Trump supporter appointed to a senior post in the Louisiana convention delegation is Eric Skrmetta, the campaign’s state co-chairman who was named vice chairman of the state’s GOP convention delegation, a largely ceremonial position that carries no statutory responsibilities. Mr. Skrmetta, who is an elected member of the Louisiana Public Service Commission, didn’t respond to requests for comment this week.

Tony Perkins, the president of the Family Research Council, is a Cruz supporter who was named one of Louisiana’s two members on the platform committee. Mr. Perkins said the Cruz campaign sought to get its members appointed to the rules and credentials panels to protect itself in the event of a contested convention. “It’s more of a defensive posture than anything,” Mr. Perkins said. “They don’t want the rules to be used against them. It’s more of knowing how potent the rules can be and making sure they are fair.”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ted-cruz-ga ... 1458861959

[John F]

Alaska:
Republicans
see above

Democrats
Sanders 81.6%
Clinton 18.4%

(Total Republican votes: 21,930. Total Democratic votes: 539.)

Hawaii:
Republicans
see above

Democrats
Sanders 70.6%
Clinton 29.2%


Washington:
Republicans
primary on May 24

Democrats
Sanders 72.7%
Clinton 27.1%


Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 738
Ted Cruz 463
Marco Rubio 166
John Kasich 143
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 1,703 (1,234 elected, 469 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 985 (956 elected, 29 superdelegates)
unpledged superdelegates 219
needed for nomination: 2,383

[John F]

Wisconsin
Republicans:
Cruz 48.5%
Trump 34.9%
Kasich 14.0%

Democrats:
Sanders 56.3%
Clinton 43.3%


Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 739
Ted Cruz 502
Marco Rubio 171
John Kasich 143
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 1,743 (1,274 elected, 469 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 1,056 (1,025 elected, 31 superdelegates)
unpledged superdelegates 219
needed for nomination: 2,383

[John F]

Wyoming
Democrats:
Sanders 55.7%
Clinton 44.3%
(each won 7 of the 14 delegates)

Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 742
Ted Cruz 506
Marco Rubio 171
John Kasich 143
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 1,767 (1,298 elected, 469 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 1,110 (1,079 elected, 31 superdelegates)
unpledged superdelegates 219
needed for nomination: 2,383

[John F]

New York
Republicans:
Trump 60.1%
Kasich 25.2%
Cruz 14.7%

Democrats:
Clinton 57.6%
Sanders 42.4%


Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 839
Ted Cruz 543
Marco Rubio 171
John Kasich 146
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 1,905 (1,436 elected, 469 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 1,223 (1,192 elected, 31 superdelegates)
unpledged superdelegates 219
needed for nomination: 2,383

[lennygoran]

In light of the results I was surprised to see the NYTimes saying the following:



http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/20/opini ... egion&_r=0



Len

[lennygoran]

And this pessismistic report also surprised me. Len


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... c=nl_draw2

[John F]

The NY Times editorial is fine - as long as a candidate can afford to campaign and feels like doing it, let him or her keep on, for whatever that may contribute to the discussion. As for the Post article, it's just a survey of polls. What counts isn't what a very select few respondents tell the pollsters but how the people actually vote.

[John F]

Connecticut
Republicans:
Trump 57.7%
Kasich 28.5%
Cruz 11.7%

Democrats:
Clinton 51.7%
Sanders 46.5%


Delaware
Republicans:
Trump 60.8%
Kasich 20.4%
Cruz 15.9%

Democrats:
Clinton 59.8%
Sanders 39.2%


Maryland
Republicans:
Trump 54.4%
Kasich 23.0%
Cruz 18.9%

Democrats:
Clinton 63.0%
Sanders 33.3%


Pennsylvania
Republicans:
Trump 56.7%
Cruz 21.6%
Kasich 19.4%

Democrats:
Clinton 55.6%
Sanders 43.6%


Rhode Island
Republicans:
Trump 63.8%
Kasich 24.4%
Cruz 10.4%

Democrats:
Sanders 55.0%
Clinton 43.3%


Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 949
Ted Cruz 544
Marco Rubio 171
John Kasich 153
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 2,159 (1,640 elected, 519 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 1,370 (1,331 elected, 39 superdelegates)
unpledged superdelegates 161
needed for nomination: 2,383

[jbuck919]

Those sensible Marylanders. If we're going to have global warming and I have to put up with Confederate flags even in Stony Creek, maybe it's time to think about moving back there.

[lennygoran]

Those sensible Marylanders. If we're going to have global warming and I have to put up with Confederate flags even in Stony Creek, maybe it's time to think about moving back there.

You'd sure be better off in the winter! Regards, Len

[John F]

Indiana
Republicans:
Trump 53.3%
Cruz 36.6%
Kasich 7.6%

Democrats:
Sanders 52.5%
Clinton 47.5%


Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 1007
Ted Cruz 546
Marco Rubio 173
John Kasich 153
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 2,220 (1,700 elected, 520 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 1,449 (1,410 elected, 39 superdelegates)
unpledged superdelegates 153
needed for nomination: 2,383

[John F]

West Virginia
Republicans:
Trump 76.9%
Cruz 9.0%
Kasich 6.8%
Ben Carson 2.1%
Marco Rubio 1.4%
Jeb Bush 1.1%

Democrats:
Sanders 51.4%
Clinton 36.0%

Nebraska
Republicans:
Trump 61.4%
Cruz 18.5%
Kasich 11.4%
Ben Carson 5.1%
Marco Rubio 3.6%

Democrats:
No primary; the state Democratic caucus was on March 5.


Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 1020
Ted Cruz 546
Marco Rubio 168
John Kasich 153
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 2,239 (1,716 elected, 523 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 1,469 (1,430 elected, 39 superdelegates)
unpledged superdelegates 150
needed for nomination: 2,383

NOTE: For those watching the numbers closely, Clinton adds a few superdelegates each week even when Sanders wins a primary, while Sanders's superdelegate total doesn't change.

[John F]

Kentucky
Republicans:
No primary; the state Republican caucus was on March 5.

Democrats:
Clinton 46.8%
Sanders 46.3%

Oregon
Republicans:
Trump 66.6%
Cruz 17.0%
Kasich 16.3%

Democrats:
Sanders 56.0%
Clinton 44.0%

Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 1103
Ted Cruz 549
Marco Rubio 168
John Kasich 159
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 2,293 (1,768 elected, 525 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 1,533 (1,494 elected, 39 superdelegates)
unpledged superdelegates 148
needed for nomination: 2,383

The nominations of both parties can't be decided before the primaries on June 7 unless the remaining Democratic superdelegates commit to Hillary Clinton.

[John F]

This isn't a primary result, but thanks to wheeling and dealing in the delegate selection process, Donald Trump now has 1,238 pledged delegates, one more than a majority. This according to Associated Press.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/27/us/po ... ation.html

He was going to get there in the remaining primaries anyway. So the die is cast.

[John F]

American Virgin Islands
Republicans:
The Republican primary was on March 10.

Democrats:
Clinton 7 delegates
Sanders 0 delegates
(vote totals not available)

Puerto Rico
Republicans:
The Republican primary was on March 6.

Democrats:
Clinton 36 delegates
Sanders 20 delegates
(vote totals not available)

Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 1,239
Ted Cruz 560
Marco Rubio 167
John Kasich 161
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 2,383 (1,812 elected, 571 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 1,569 (1,521 elected, 48 superdelegates)
unpledged superdelegates 148
needed for nomination: 2,383

[John F]

Hillary Clinton has just barely reached the number of delegates needed to nominate her, thanks to the superdelegates. But if any of them change their votes, she needs to win more pledged delegates in today's last round of primaries to avoid a contested convention. The Associated Press has confirmed this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/07/us/po ... -race.html

[John F]

California
Republicans:
Donald Trump 75.4%
John Kasich 11.3%
Ted Cruz 9.1%
Ben Carson 3.4%

Democrats:
Hillary Clinton 56%
Bernie Sanders 43.1%

Montana
Republicans:
Donald Trump 73.7%
Ted Cruz 9.3%
John Kasich 6.9%
Marco Rubio 3.3%
Jeb Bush 2.1%

Democrats:
Bernie Sanders 51%
Hillary Clinton 44.6%

New Jersey
Republicans:
Donald Trump 80.6%
Ted Cruz 6.1%
John Kasich 13.3%

Democrats:
Hillary Clinton 63.3%
Bernie Sanders 36.7%

New Mexico
Republicans:
Donald Trump 70.7%
Ted Cruz 13.3%
John Kasich 7.5%
Ben Carson 3.7%
Jeb Bush 3.4%
Carly Fiorina 1.4%

Democrats:
Hillary Clinton 63.3%
Bernie Sanders 36.7%

North Dakota
Republicans:
No caucus; convention delegates will remain unpledged

Democrats:
Bernie Sanders 64.2%
Hillary Clinton 25.6%

South Dakota
Republicans:
Donald Trump 67.1%
Ted Cruz 17.0%
John Kasich 15.9%

Democrats:
Hillary Clinton 51%
Bernie Sanders 49%

District of Columbia
Republicans:
Primary held on March 12

Democrats:
Primary on June 14

Total delegates so far
Republicans:
Donald Trump 1,536
Ted Cruz 560
Marco Rubio 167
John Kasich 161
needed for nomination: 1,237

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 2,755 (2,184 elected, 571 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders 1,852 (1,804 elected, 48 superdelegates)
unpledged superdelegates 148
needed for nomination: 2,383

Note that the Democratic nomination will depend on the superdelegates' votes. Neither candidate has enough pledged delegates to win without superdelegate support. However, Hillary Clinton received 16.2 primary votes to Bernie Sanders's 12.3 million, and I doubt many superdelegates will be impressed with his claim that they should vote for him.