The E.U.’s proposed oil embargo of Russia is stuck in a standoff with Hungary

[maestrob]

May 25, 2022, 2:52 p.m.


It’s been nearly a month since the European Union appeared poised to approve a ban on Russian oil, a once unthinkable measure heralded as a potent sign of European unity in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine. Instead, the policy is now stalled, stymied by Hungary’s stubborn refusal to fall behind the rest of the bloc in sidelining the Kremlin.

Hopes that the standoff between Hungary and the other 26 members of the bloc could be overcome at a summit in Brussels on Monday and Tuesday are also fading. Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, seeming to relish his position as the E.U.’s spoiler-in-chief, asked earlier this week that the proposed embargo remain off the table because his concerns were not anywhere close to being resolved.

Mr. Orban’s ability to assert himself was emboldened after a recent landslide victory in Hungarian elections. Mr. Orban has come under repeated and stiff criticism in the E.U. for flouting its norms in areas such as media freedom and the rule of law. Concerns that he was abusing his authority were further fanned this week when he invoked a state of emergency that would allow him to bypass parliament.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday, Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands was skeptical the impasse with Hungary would get resolved next week. Mr. Orban “is not giving a lot of reason to hope that we could get to a deal on Monday, Tuesday,” he said in an interview, adding that he thought the bloc would eventually overcome the standoff.

Nevertheless, negotiations in Brussels over giving Hungary concessions have been going on for the past few weeks. Mr. Orban has demanded more time before Hungary weans itself from Russian oil, as well as E.U. funds to help the country transition to new resources and avoid, as he described it, an “atomic bomb” for Hungary’s economy.

Hungary is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. The cost of upgrading Hungary’s infrastructure to receive non-Russian oil is estimated by the E.U. and Hungary to be about 700 million euros.

E.U. officials said Mr. Orban has received assurances that he could get most of the exemptions he seeks were he to sign off on the embargo. Among the concessions on the table, they said, is for Hungary to have two more years than most other member states to cut off Russian oil imports, with a proposed phaseout deadline at the end of 2024.

Mr. Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, said that an extension for Hungary in implementing a total ban on oil seemed reasonable. But he said he was concerned that Hungary was demanding funds when it had its share of an E.U. pandemic stimulus package frozen because of Hungary’s breaching of E.U. rules, including in its handling of its judicial system. Hungary has been taken to the E.U. court over some of its disputes with the bloc and Mr. Orban has claimed the E.U.’s executive branch is biased and ideologically driven against its government.

Frans Timmermans, another Dutchman who is the top European Commission official on energy and climate change, said in an interview on Wednesday that allowing Hungary to access narrowly targeted funds to upgrade its energy infrastructure could potentially open the way for the oil embargo to move forward.

Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia, a consulting firm, said there was still reason to be optimistic that the E.U. could approve the oil ban and further punish Russia.

“Given the pro-E.U. stance of Hungary’s population and the fact some money is likely to flow from Brussels, we still believe Orban will be forced to yield,” he said. “But the boost to Orban’s self-esteem, provided by the election victory, is making him even bolder in his willingness to fight Brussels down to the wire.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/26 ... kraine-war