WSJ — Abortion ban is a political gift to Democrats in a key swing state

[jserraglio]

Comment: The Maga space cadets were for life before they were against it. Now they’ve been caught with their pants down. A massive flip-flop.

WSJ News Analysis

ELECTION 2024

Why Arizona Will Be Ground Zero for the 2024 Abortion Fight

By Eliza Collins
April 10, 2024

Abortion is a major issue for Arizona voters, WSJ poll shows; GOP on defense

PHOENIX—Meagan Quattlebaum of Tucson said she was so horrified by the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision to ban nearly all abortions in her state that she now plans to volunteer to help Democrats win in November.

“I think it’s a really selfish and ridiculous ruling,” said Quattlebaum, 28, a registered independent who works in the healthcare industry. “It definitely influences the way I will be voting.”

The Arizona Supreme Court’s decision Tuesday to bring back a 160-year-old near total ban on the procedure inflamed the politics in one of the nation’s biggest electoral battlegrounds, which is now effectively ground zero for abortion politics. With a tossup Senate race, a pair of close congressional seats and its 11 Electoral College votes on the line, the state will be one of the most closely watched in the country.

Arizona voters were most likely to say that they wouldn’t support a candidate they disagreed with on abortion, according to a Wall Street Journal poll conducted in March of seven swing states. In the poll, which was conducted before the Arizona ruling, the majority of voters there said they supported access to the procedure—and more voters said they backed President Biden’s approach than that of the presumptive GOP presidential candidate, Donald Trump. Across the seven states—Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and North Carolina in addition to Arizona—abortion is the only issue where Biden had a clear advantage over his predecessor.

Biden won Arizona in 2020 by the narrowest margin in the country—just over 10,000 votes. This year Biden lags behind Trump in most battleground and national polls, including the Journal poll of Arizona, in which he trailed the former president by 5 percentage points. Voters in Arizona have given Trump higher marks than Biden on issues such as the economy and immigration, which they say are their top concerns even ahead of abortion.

While Democrats fretted about the practical and health consequences of the new ban, the decision was a political gift to a party eager to paint Republicans as extreme on abortion and responsible for the chaos that has followed the fall of Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court decision that had established the constitutional right to an abortion.

And the ruling quickly put Republicans on defense.

“If past is prologue, this is going to have an immediate and lasting impact on politics in Arizona, and they bit off more than they can chew,” said Kris Mayes, the Democratic attorney general. She credited her razor-thin victory in 2022—by 280 votes—to the fall of Roe earlier that year.

Arizona Democrats also said the ban could help them finally wrest control of the state Legislature, where Republicans hold narrow majorities in both chambers.

Abortion was a key issue in the 2022 midterm elections and helped Democrats to victory in races in Arizona and across the country.

Mayes and other Democrats have won the state in recent years by engaging Democratic voters and outperforming with independents and moderate Republicans. The Journal poll of Arizona voters showed that nine out of 10 Democrats, two-thirds of independents and one-third of Republicans support access to the procedure.

A ballot measure that would legalize abortion until viability—or more than halfway through a typical pregnancy—is expected to be put before voters in Arizona in November, giving Democrats hope they can bring out their coalition.

“I think we’re going to see moderate Republican women and independents respond to this very sternly,” said Jen Cox, senior adviser to the Biden campaign in Arizona. Biden has promised to restore access to abortion rights and has criticized Trump for appointing the Supreme Court justices who were part of the majority that overturned the right to an abortion. The Biden campaign is running two abortion-focused ads in Arizona, both of which blame Trump for restrictions.

Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said after the ruling: “President Trump could not have been more clear. These are decisions for people of each state to make.” Trump on Monday declined to take a national stance.

Arizona Republicans sought distance from the decision Tuesday as Democrats amped up their offensive efforts.

Kari Lake, the expected GOP candidate in the state’s highly competitive Senate race, was among the Republicans on Tuesday who said they opposed the new ruling and called on state lawmakers and Gov. Katie Hobbs—a Democrat—to come up with a new solution. During her unsuccessful bid for governor in 2022, Lake praised the 1864 ban but later softened her stance and told the Journal in the fall that she supported a 15-week ban and opposed a national ban.

Hobbs called on the Legislature to repeal the 1864 ban, which would take the state back to the 15-week ban that had previously been in place. While Democrats say that law is still too restrictive, it would give some breathing room before voters can cast ballots in November on even-looser restrictions. In a joint statement, the Arizona GOP House and Senate leaders declined to commit to bringing up legislation, saying they would be reviewing options with members and constituents.

The Arizona Supreme Court, in a 4-2 decision, agreed that the 19th-century law takes precedence over the 15-week ban, which was passed in 2022. The court delayed implementation of the ban for at least two weeks to allow for additional legal arguments, but abortion-rights advocates appear to have few options to prevent it from taking effect.

One potential benefit for Democrats, especially Biden, is that the abortion ruling could push disaffected Democrats to turn out. Biden has been facing a lack of enthusiasm from young voters, in part because of his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

“It’s incredibly disheartening and angering, and now I’m nervous to live here,” said Liz Hertel, 26, who does nonprofit work and lives in Phoenix, about the ban. Hertel, a Democrat, has been unhappy with Biden’s support for Israel and foreign policy in general but will vote for him, Democrats and the ballot initiative in November.

Some Republicans acknowledged that the ballot measure was likely to pass but added that voters could still split their tickets.

“I do think that voters are discerning enough that they can vote for a ballot initiative and then vote for candidates based on the totality of the issues, including the border crisis and inflation,” said Jon Seaton, a Republican strategist who has worked in the state.

Seaton noted that Ohio voters enshrined abortion access into the state constitution, but are also expected to vote for Trump in November and have a highly competitive Senate race.

Dorothy Self, a 41-year-old independent who lives in Phoenix, is one of those voters. Self, who works in the medical field, said the ballot measure goes too far. But she feels strongly about the need for women to have choices—she said she got an abortion after being taken advantage of when she was younger—and would vote in favor of a ballot measure this fall because of her support for exceptions for rape, incest, life of the mother and fetal abnormalities.

“I would have to go with the one that gave more options to victims,” she said. At the same time, she plans to vote for Republicans, including Trump, this fall.