Can the GOP now appeal to black voters?

[Corlyss_D]

Not with Steele. But eventually the blacks will come home, at least enough to make the Democrats take notice. The only reason the Republicans won Maryland was because Turner thought her Kennedy name substituted for a lackluster political career, ideas, programs, and the absence of the natural Kennedy political skill. It won't happen again. The Dems are awake in Md.

Republican Steele

Can the GOP now appeal to black voters?

BY BRENDAN MINITER
Tuesday, July 19, 2005 12:01 a.m.

Call it the Northern Strategy. Last week Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Melhman stepped out in front of a crowd gathered for the NAACP National Convention in Wisconsin and coolly announced the death of the hotly debated and controversial electoral strategy successfully used by Richard Nixon in 1968. The "Southern Strategy," as it has become known, helped Republicans win in many states of the former Confederacy in that election by appealing to defecting conservative Democrats.
The GOP's success in what was once the solidly Democratic South came, unfortunately, as some Republicans were "looking the other way or trying to benefit politically from racial polarization," Mr. Melhman told the group. "I am here today as the Republican chairman to tell you we were wrong."

These aren't the first steps Republicans have taken to reach out to black voters. But Mr. Melhman's speech is an important turning point in reaching out to a reliably Democratic voting bloc. It's also a necessary step if Republicans are going to remain competitive on the presidential level by improving their performance in northern states with large, inner-city black populations. On the same day that Mr. Melhman spoke to the NAACP, President Bush traveled to Indiana to meet with black leaders and spotlight their volunteer activities. The president also has appointed two secretaries of state--Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice--who are both accomplished individuals who happen to be black.

It's true that only two Democrats--Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton--have been able to pry the presidency out of Republican hands since 1968. But with two relatively close elections under their belts, Republicans can hardly be sanguine about their electoral prospects. After all, Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania were once Republican states. Yet today these states represent a treasure trove of voters all but out of reach to the Party of Lincoln unless it can find a way to appeal to minority voters in the industrial heartland.

If this was just a problem for the Republican Party's electoral fortunes, we could afford to say c'est la vie. But important policy questions also hang in the balance and depend on a realignment of black voting to support the black community's changing political interests. That's something to keep in mind as the battle over school choice plays out in Washington D.C., with Democrats in Congress opposing it while black city leaders support it. Or as members of the Congressional Black Caucus are quietly told to get in step with the Democratic Party's march on Wal-Mart, even as many members of the CBC have been grumbling that Wal-Mart is one of a few companies expanding in black neighborhoods and employing a large number of minorities.

One Democrat dismissed Mr. Melhman's remarks on cable news by saying that it's not a coincidence that all the members of the Congressional Black Caucus are Democrats. No, it's not--when J.C. Watts, a black Republican from Oklahoma, was in Congress, he was actually refused permission on to join the caucus. Unfortunately, their loyalty to the Democrats has come at a steep price for black voters. They're taken for granted by one party and written off by the other--hence the lack of progress on schools, drugs, and urban tax policies that drive employers to the suburbs.

Yet the potential for new alignments won't amount to much unless the GOP can develop comprehensive policies to help black communities or put forward credible candidates to sell them. A successful Northern Strategy will require the GOP to win over black voters with a message of empowerment, ownership and opportunity. Not sure it can work? Well, the new approach is likely to get its first significant test in Maryland's 2006 Senate race.

The Old Line State is now the front line thanks to the rise of Lt. Gov. Michael Steele. Unlike Alan Keyes, another black Republican politician to come out of Maryland in recent years, Mr. Steele is not just a gadfly--he's a serious candidate for statewide office who learned political tactics from the ground up. Mr. Steele rose through the ranks in Prince George's County, a D.C. suburb that's home to a million people, and he was key leader when the state GOP was trying to expand its weak foothold in what was a very blue state.

His first advice was something he learned at the knee of his mother: "Shut up and listen." At his urging, Republicans fanned out across the state and dropped in on every public meeting they could find--even those held by the NAACP. They then came back and formulated policies to take to the voters. In 2002 ,the strategy paid off as Robert Ehrlich became the first Republican to win the governor's mansion in decades. His running-mate, Mr. Steele, became the first African-American to win statewide office in Maryland's history, and the GOP has begun making gains in the state legislature too.

Mr. Steele is no accidental Republican. He spent three years studying to be a Catholic priest before entering politics. Less well known is that it was Ronald Reagan's failed 1976 presidential bid that led Mr. Steele to join the GOP.

Reagan lost several early primaries that year and then, now famously, fought it out all the way to the Republican Convention before losing the nomination to President Gerald Ford. Just 17 years old at the time, Mr. Steele admired Reagan's steely conservative message and his tenacity too. So in 1981, when he abandoned plans to become a priest, he already knew he was a Republican--a believer in low taxes, free enterprise and opportunity for all.

Mr. Steele isn't yet a candidate for the Senate, but he set up an exploratory committee last month and he clearly is the favorite of many national Republican donors. His possible candidacy is also already setting off alarm bells for Democrats. They recognize that he threatens not just their power in one state, but the fraying coalition that has allowed Democrats to treat black votes as their birthright.

They won't be giving up the Senate seat--held now by the retiring Paul Sarbanes--without a fight. Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin, for one, is already sitting on a $1.1 million war chest and has announced his intention to seek his party's nomination. But if Republicans show they can become competitive in the Old Line State by expanding their share of the black vote, it will be a political earthquake with ramifications far beyond Maryland.

Mr. Miniter is assistant editor of OpinionJournal.com. His column appears Tuesdays.


Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

[Barry]

....The GOP's success in what was once the solidly Democratic South came, unfortunately, as some Republicans were "looking the other way or trying to benefit politically from racial polarization," Mr. Melhman told the group. "I am here today as the Republican chairman to tell you we were wrong."

Nice of him to at least admit it. Way back when (when I was coming of political age and voting in my first couple elections in the 80s), this was what probably initially turned me off to the GOP (I know I've mentioned on here in the past that my stepfather is black........let's just say I didn't take the "benefiting politically from racial polarization" well.....the GOP in general became the Devil incarnate to me for their efforts to cozy up to old-line white bigots).

[Haydnseek]

Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is a very impressive individual with appeal beyond the conservative base. I'm not sure how I feel about him becoming a Senator. It would add to the majority but the Senate is a dead end where so little of real value is accomplished. Steele is an executive and would make a good Governor or federal cabinet officer. I would not be surprised to see him on the national GOP ticket some day if his political career flourishes.

[Ralph]

If Democrats take minority voters for granted they deserve to lose them.

[Corlyss_D]

....The GOP's success in what was once the solidly Democratic South came, unfortunately, as some Republicans were "looking the other way or trying to benefit politically from racial polarization," Mr. Melhman told the group. "I am here today as the Republican chairman to tell you we were wrong."

Nice of him to at least admit it. Way back when (when I was coming of political age and voting in my first couple elections in the 80s), this was what probably initially turned me off to the GOP (I know I've mentioned on here in the past that my stepfather is black........let's just say I didn't take the "benefiting politically from racial polarization" well.....the GOP in general became the Devil incarnate to me for their efforts to cozy up to old-line white bigots).

I started to put up that I consider this speech to be something on the order of Bush's 2002 repudiation of 60 years of "stability" politics in the Middle East. It's a well known fact that American foreign policy necessitated by the cold war bears some responsibility for the state of affairs in the middle east and therefore we have some responsibility for cleaning it up agressively rather than waiting for the 2nd coming or some equally unlikely realization among the Arab tyrants. The same might be said for the necessity of a formal repudiation of what everyone thinks they know about the Republican party and it's relationship with blacks: someone had to say it formally.

Having said that, I don't quite agree with Mellman, but it makes good press. Several historians have documented the party trends in the South beginning from the end of WW2 and they show steady Republican growth for different reasons. It wasn't all about race, but with Nixon's characteristic instincts for sleazy self-serving politics, he managed to make it all about race.

[Corlyss_D]

Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is a very impressive individual with appeal beyond the conservative base. I'm not sure how I feel about him becoming a Senator. It would add to the majority but the Senate is a dead end where so little of real value is accomplished. Steele is an executive and would make a good Governor or federal cabinet officer. I would not be surprised to see him on the national GOP ticket some day if his political career flourishes.

I agree wholeheartedly. The fact that they are running him for Sen rather than holding off to run him for Gov tells me a lot. Personally I think a person has to be comfortable with early political death if they want to be a Senator. "The Senate is the place politicians go to die" kind of thing. I can't think of many who went from Sen to Gov. Governorships is where the pool of presidential talent comes from. I can't think what the Party has in mind for Steele if they want to park him in the Senate. If he don't get some executive time under his belt, I don't expect to see him do more than build inroads to the black community.

[Haydnseek]

The only reason the Republicans won Maryland was because Turner thought her Kennedy name substituted for a lackluster political career, ideas, programs, and the natural Kennedy political skill. It won't happen again. The Dems are awake in Md.

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend was a very bad candidate but the Erlich/Steele ticket was attractive. They remain popular. The Governor announced a 1 billion dollar budget surplus today. The Republicans are well organized and have made inroads throughout the state. I would say things are trending Republican with a long way to go before they are the majority party. It's not impossible to imagine anymore, at least.

[Modernistfan]

This really ought to set off alarm bells for the Democrats. It is true that they have taken the African-American vote for granted for far too long, and the African-American vote has ended up in the Democratic column in percentages of 85-90% despite a lack of progress on issues relevant to many African-Americans under Democratic administrations.

Ex-President Clinton was wildly popular in the African-American community, yet, during his administration, serious opportunities were missed. For example, Clinton refused to act aggressively on the issue of redlining by banks and insurance companies, as well as on the issue of racial profiling by law enforcement. I was very disappointed. On the former issue, I would have liked to seen legislation proposed allowing a federal takeover of a bank if that bank had been shown to have a repeated, persistent, and flagrant policy of redlining or denying loans to blacks (or Hispanics or Asians, for that matter) even when economic status was factored out of the equation, much as if that bank had become insolvent. The denial of loans and of insurance to minorities strikes at the heart of the American dream of home ownership and business development. On the latter issue, there were pockets of "good ol' boy" thinking in the FBI, Secret Service, and other federal agencies that Clinton really did not attempt to go after seriously.

This is one area where the Democrats have to get their act together and soon unless they want to go the way of the Whigs.

[Corlyss_D]

The only reason the Republicans won Maryland was because Turner thought her Kennedy name substituted for a lackluster political career, ideas, programs, and the absence of the natural Kennedy political skill. It won't happen again. The Dems are awake in Md.

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend

Well, see how forgettable she was? I forgot what her name was!

was a very bad candidate but the Erlich/Steele ticket was attractive. They remain popular. The Governor announced a 1 billion dollar budget surplus today. The Republicans are well organized and have made inroads throughout the state. I would say things are trending Republican with a long way to go before they are the majority party. It's not impossible to imagine anymore, at least.

I'm surprised. I'll remain hopeful.

[Haydnseek]

I'm surprised. I'll remain hopeful.

I probably exaggerated the Republican trend, but a real two-party system does appear to be developing in formerly one-party Maryland. Check out that Red County/Blue County map from the 2004 election to see the change.

[Ralph]

Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is a very impressive individual with appeal beyond the conservative base. I'm not sure how I feel about him becoming a Senator. It would add to the majority but the Senate is a dead end where so little of real value is accomplished. Steele is an executive and would make a good Governor or federal cabinet officer. I would not be surprised to see him on the national GOP ticket some day if his political career flourishes.

I agree wholeheartedly. The fact that they are running him for Sen rather than holding off to run him for Gov tells me a lot. Personally I think a person has to be comfortable with early political death if they want to be a Senator. "The Senate is the place politicians go to die" kind of thing. I can't think of many who went from Sen to Gov. Governorships is where the pool of presidential talent comes from. I can't think what the Party has in mind for Steele if they want to park him in the Senate. If he don't get some executive time under his belt, I don't expect to see him do more than build inroads to the black community.

*****

There's a lot to be said for being a governor but, personally, I'd take the Senate any day. And the Capitol cafeteria is really great.

[Ralph]

I'm surprised. I'll remain hopeful.

I probably exaggerated the Republican trend, but a real two-party system does appear to be developing in formerly one-party Maryland. Check out that Red County/Blue County map from the 2004 election to see the change.

*****

Maryland is, politically, an interesting state. It's come along way from the days of Nixon's fellow crook, Spiro Agnew.

[Werner]

If you'll excuse the digression, Ralph's post reminds my of the pictorial memoirs I'm just now putting the finishing touches to. It includes the recollection of leaving Moscow on a tour group in 1973, and boarding our charter plane (KLM) after passing through close control that we didn't take one wrong step at the airport - and, of course, having interesting but thoroughly party-line Intourist guides while there. Once on board the plane, the attendants passed out the International Herald Tribune. The big headline: Spiro Agnew resigns the Vice Presidency after pleading nolo contendere on corruption charges. We didn't know then that his President would follow him into disreputable resugnation less than a year later.

[Ralph]

Spiro ("When you've seen one tree, you've seen them all") Agnew was some piece of work.

[Corlyss_D]

There's a lot to be said for being a governor but, personally, I'd take the Senate any day. And the Capitol cafeteria is really great.

That's like saying that you want to be president because you hear the White House chefs are damn good.

[Corlyss_D]

Maryland is, politically, an interesting state. It's come along way from the days of Nixon's fellow crook, Spiro Agnew.

I thought being a southern state, it had always had Democratic crooks running it except for Agnew and Erlich. Not that I think Erlich is a crook, but that does seem to be the rule rather than the exception in state and local politics.

[Ralph]

Maryland is, politically, an interesting state. It's come along way from the days of Nixon's fellow crook, Spiro Agnew.

I thought being a southern state, it had always had Democratic crooks running it except for Agnew and Erlich. Not that I think Erlich is a crook, but that does seem to be the rule rather than the exception in state and local politics.

*****

Maryland isn't a true Southern state although there are parts that sure seem like it. It's a very interesting state. My son will include St. Mary's College, a first-rate school, in his application assault. It's near the Chesapeake and nothing else. I wouldn't mind his going there at all.